WPS GLOBAL EARLY WARNING TOOL June 2024 QUARTERLY ANALYSIS

 

QUARTERLY OVERVIEW

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT

These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges.  See complete story in the following section.

Africa

• East Africa: Floods and landslides across Kenya have killed around 200 people since March, with hundreds of thousands forced to leave their homes. Dozens more have been killed in neighboring Tanzania and Burundi.
• Sudan and South Sudan: There is a risk of flooding due to high water levels and militia control of the Jebel Aulia dam and a high risk of food shortage in Central Sudan as farmers flee conflict.
• West Africa: A deadly heat wave includes highest April temperature ever recorded on the continent of Africa.
• Southern Africa: Severe drought since last Fall has been affecting large parts of southern Africa, including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, parts of Mozambique, Angola, and Botswana, as well as Lesotho, Eswatini, and southern Madagascar.

Middle East

• Gaza: Half of Gaza water facilities surveyed have been damaged or destroyed.
• Iran: Iran shifts from devastating drought to damaging floods.
• Afghanistan: Heavy rains and flash flooding have caused several hundred deaths and destroyed thousands of homes.

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST

These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest. See complete story below.

Asia

• Asia: deadly high temperatures that swept through much of Asia in April and May impact millions of highly vulnerable people.
• China: Heavy rains cause massive flooding in Guangdong Province in mid-April.
• Vietnam: Drought and high temperatures impact coffee harvest and contribute to massive fish deaths.

Africa

• Morocco: Severe drought conditions continue in Morocco, slashing cereal harvests by 43% in 2024.

Middle East

• United Arab Emirates: The UAE saw its heaviest rainfall since recordkeeping began 75 years ago.

Europe

• Russia and Kazakhstan: Some of the worst flooding in decades hit regions of the Ural Mountains and Siberia in Russia and regions of neighboring Kazakhstan in April. The Orsk Dam on the Ural River burst on April 6, 2024, resulting in $277 million in damages.
• United Kingdom: Record-breaking rainfall over the past few months have prompted farming groups to warn of drastically-reduced food production.

South America

• Ecuador: A drought is forcing the country to ration electricity.
• Colombia: The same drought affecting Ecuador is also impacting Colombia, forcing it to ration water.
• Brazil: Some of the worst flooding in recent history has displaced hundreds of thousands of people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in Southern Brazil.

North America

• Mexico: Mexico City, with a population of 23 million, is quickly running out of water, as drought, high demand, and poor water management take their toll.
• Mexico and United States: Tensions are rising over Mexico’s failure to deliver sufficient water to the United States via the Rio Grande.
• United States: Storms in southeast Texas and parts of Louisiana dumped over 2 feet of rain in some areas, causing widespread flooding and damage.
• United States: Damage to homes from severe storms, flooding, and other climate change-related disasters is leading to mounting losses among insurance providers. As a result, they are raising premiums, cutting back coverage, or leaving some states altogether.  

Global

• Northern Hemisphere Temperatures: Researchers have concluded that the summer of 2023 was the warmest in 2,000 years.
• Planetary Climate: Scientists are worried that pronounced increases in air and ocean temperatures over the past year could signal a shift of the planet’s climate into overdrive.

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT 

These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges.

East Africa: more DEADLY FLOODING

In our last quarterly update, we highlighted that torrential rains and flash floods in December killed over 350 people and displaced over 1 million across Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Tanzania. Additional floods and landslides across Kenya have killed around 200 people since March, with hundreds of thousands forced to leave their homes. Dozens more have been killed in neighboring Tanzania and Burundi.

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts ongoing conflict in all regions of Ethiopia, and many regions of Somalia and Kenya. The WPS short-term conflict forecast predicts and extreme increase in conflict events in Oromia, Ethiopia and over 100 events in Oromia, and Amhara, Ethiopia, and Shabeellaha Hoose, Somalia.

SUDAN and South Sudan: RISK OF FLooding and food shortages

The recent high water levels of Lake Victoria threaten flooding in downstream areas of Uganda, and high water levels in the White Nile threaten South Sudan, in particular the Sudd wetlands in Jonglei State. Recent flooding in 2020-2022 caused massive damages in Jonglei State, and triggered conflicts among local communities searching for dry grounds. High river flow of the White Nile may also cause high flooding risks in Sudan, in particular as the Jebel Aulia dam, located 40 km south of Khartoum, is not operational since it was captured by the RSF militia in December 2023. There are no operators at the dam site to adjust the gates of the dam.

In addition, there is high risk of food shortage in Central Sudan, as farmers fled Gezira Scheme since it was captured by RSF militia in December 2023. No land preparation has been reported in Gezira, and only a small part in Managil extension for the summer crops.

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts emerging or ongoing conflict in all of South Sudan and the southern part of Sudan.  The WPS short-term conflict forecast predicts an extreme increase in conflict in North Darfur, Sudan and over 100 deadly conflict events in North Darfur, Al Jazirah, and North Kurdufan, Sudan.

WEST AFRICA: RECORD HIGH APRIL TEMPERATURE

A heat wave that swept through parts of West Africa and the western Sahel in late March and early April included temperatures of 45° C (113° F) in parts of Burkina Faso and  48° C (119° F) in the city of Kayes, Mali. “According to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera, who tracks record-breaking temperatures around the world, it was the hottest April temperature ever recorded on the continent of Africa.”

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts ongoing conflict in all of Mali, most of Burkina Faso, parts of Ghana, Guinea, Benin, and the Gambia, and a mix of emerging and ongoing conflict in Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon. The WPS short-term conflict forecast predicts over 100 events in Gao, Mali, Zamfara, Borno and Kaduna, Nigeria and Extrême-Nord, Cameroon.

southern africa: severe drought

Severe drought since last Fall has been affecting large parts of southern Africa, including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, parts of Mozambique, Angola, and Botswana, as well as Lesotho, Eswatini, and southern Madagascar. According to UNOCHA, around 18 million are experiencing crisis levels of food insecurity.

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts ongoing conflict in parts of South Africa, Madagascar, and Mozambique.  The WPS short-term conflict forecast predicts over 100 deadly conflict events in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

Gaza: growing water crisis

In our last Quarterly Analysis, we reported on a lack of sufficient access to food and clean water that was causing many civilians to suffer from gastrointestinal illnesses, hunger, and even starvation. In mid-May, the BBC released results from a survey of satellite data, which found that over half of water sites surveyed were damaged or destroyed.

The WPS long-term forecast does not have data for Gaza, but the short-term forecast predicts a decrease in conflict in the Gaza strip and an increase in the West Bank, and Israel with over 100 deadly conflict events in the West Bank.

Iran: from severe drought to destructive flooding

In our last Quarterly Analysis, we reported that Iran was grappling with one of its most severe droughts in over half a century. In April and May, Iran went from too little to too much water. In early May, Iran Focus reported that “heavy rainfall has again led to flooding in dozens of cities across Iran, damaging residential homes and agricultural lands. The Iranian Red Crescent (Hilal Ahmar) Organization stated that 21 provinces have been affected by the floods and inundation.”

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts ongoing conflict in parts of Iran.

Afghanistan: deadly floods

Heavy rains and flash flooding caused at least 300 deaths and destroyed thousands of homes in early May.  Most of the casualties were reported in Baghlan province, in the northern part of the country. In late May, flooding caused several dozen additional deaths in Faryab province (also in the northern part of the country). As in Iran, these deadly floods have come on the heels of years of severe drought.  

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts ongoing or emerging conflict in most of Afghanistan. 

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST

These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest.

morocco: severe drought continues

Severe drought conditions continued in Morocco, slashing cereal harvests by 43% in 2024. “Late rainfall and unevenly distributed rainfall were to blame for the meagre harvest. Rainfall was 31% lower compared to an average year,” according to the country’s agriculture ministry.

United Arab emirates: record rainfall

In mid-April, the UAE saw its heaviest rainfall since recordkeeping began 75 years ago. “The downpour prompted flight cancellations and delays at Dubai’s international airport, with travelers stranded for hours in both the terminal and on the tarmac, which appeared to be underwater in footage seen by CNBC. The airport said road blockages and flooding have prevented many passengers from reaching the airport for departing flights.”

asia: deadly high temperatures

Deadly high temperatures swept through much of Asia in April and May, impacting millions of highly vulnerable people. According to World Weather Attribution, “from Israel, Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, in the West, to Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines in the East, large regions of Asia experienced temperatures well above 40°C for many days. The heat was particularly difficult for people living in refugee camps and informal housing, as well as for outdoor workers.” It also greatly impacted agriculture, damaging crops and reducing yields. According to one expert, thousands of records have fallen across at least a half dozen countries. In northern India there has been reports of heat related deaths, water shortages and wildfires in the 52°C heat.

China: massive flooding

Heavy rains caused massive flooding in Guangdong Province in mid-April. Tens of thousands of people were forced from their homes in southern China as the Bei River reached levels not seen in 50 years.

Vietnam: drought and high temps impact agriculture

In our last Quarterly Analysis, we reported that southern Vietnam was suffering through an early and prolonged heatwave in February, which had contributed to lower flows in the region’s canal system and hampered transport of farmers’ rice harvests. Continued drought and high temperatures are continuing to impact Vietnamese agriculture. “It's too early to know exactly how this year's drought, exacerbated by El Niño, will affect harvests and exports. But early gauges indicate trouble for at least one key export. Vietnam's coffee association said in late March that exports of robusta coffee — the bean used in espresso and instant coffee — could decline as much as 20% in the 12 months ending in September, compared with the same period last year. Vietnam is the world's largest robusta producer, and futures prices for the bean hit a 16-year high last week.” Drought and high temperatures also killed hundreds of thousands of fish in a reservoir in the southern part of the country in April.

RUSSIA AND KAZAKHSTAN: FLOODING

Some of the worst flooding in decades hit regions of the Ural Mountains and Siberia in Russia and regions of neighboring Kazakhstan in April. “More than 4,000 people were evacuated in Orsk as swathes of the city of 230,000 were flooded. Footage published by the Emergencies Ministry showed people wading through neck-high waters, rescuing stranded dogs and travelling along flooded roads in boats and canoes.” The flooding, caused by heavy rainfall and a rapid melting of snow, caused the Orsk Dam on the Ural River in Russia to burst on April 6, 2024. This resulted in some $277 million in damages. 

united kingdom: high rainfall impacting food production

Record-breaking rainfall over the past few months have prompted farming groups to warn of drastically-reduced food production.  “It has been an exceptionally wet 18 months. According to the Met Office, 1,695.9mm of rain fell from October 2022 to March 2024, the highest amount for any 18-month period in England in recorded history. The Met Office started collecting data in 1836. The UK will be reliant on imports for wheat in the coming year and potentially beyond because of the drastic reduction in yields.”

Ecuador: electricity rationing

El Niño-driven drought in Ecuador forced the government to ration electricity in April. Seventy-five percent of the country’s electricity comes from hydropower. “Precipitation has diminished in Ecuador and Colombia this year due to warming temperatures in the south Pacific Ocean, which can cause floods along South America’s west coast but can also generate intense droughts in the Andean valleys, where many of Ecuador’s and Colombia’s main cities are located.”

colombia: water rationing

The same drought affecting Ecuador was also impacting Colombia in April. “Officials in Bogota moved to ration water after reservoirs hit historically low levels due to the combination of high temperatures and lack of rainfall prompted by the El Niño climate phenomenon.”

Brazil: devastating floods

Some of Brazil’s worst flooding in recent history has displaced 540,000 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil. Even three weeks after the floods, several cities were still underwater, including the state’s capital, Porto Alegre. Costs of rebuilding are estimated to be in the billions of dollars. Much of the country’s south received half the annual expected rainfall in just 10 days – the third such event in a year. Experts have attributed the flooding to El Nino, exacerbated by climate change, deforestation, and haphazard urbanization.

MEXICO: Mexico CITY facing day zero

Mexico City, with a population of 23 million, is quickly running out of water, as severe drought, high demand, and poor water management take their toll. Groundwater, which accounts for most of the city's water supply, is being used up faster than it is being replenished. The remainder of the city's water supply – about 27% - comes from the Cutzamala water system, a large network of dams, canals, and pipes. This system is projected to reach “Day Zero” on June 26. That’s when storage falls below the 20% mark and officials cease drawing water from it. Intermittent water supply is growing worse and spreading to more and more parts of the city. About 35% of the water supply is lost via leaks in the system. Much of the city’s wastewater isn’t treated, polluting potential additional sources of water. Some progress in water management has been made in recent years, but clearly not enough.

Change in the Valle de Bravo Reservoir that supplies Mexico City between March 2023 and March 2024. Source GWW. 

MEXICO and the united states: tensions rising over the sharing of the Rio grande

Tensions are rising over Mexico’s failure to deliver sufficient water to the United States via the Rio Grande. Amidst drought and mounting water use for lucrative crops, Mexico is falling behind on water deliveries obligated under a longstanding international water treaty. This is threatening jobs and even new housing development in US border towns. Leaders in Texas are pressuring Congress to withhold US aid to Mexico until the problem is rectified.

UNITED STATES: flooding in Texas

Storms in April over southeast Texas and parts of Louisiana dumped over 2 feet of rain in some areas, causing widespread flooding and damage, and prompting evacuations.

UNITED STATES: MOUNTING INSURANCE COMPANY LOSSES

Damage to homes from severe storms, flooding, and other climate change-related disasters is leading to mounting losses among insurance providers in the United States. “In 2023, insurers lost money on homeowners coverage in 18 states, more than a third of the country, according to a New York Times analysis of newly available financial data. That’s up from 12 states five years ago, and eight states in 2013. The result is that insurance companies are raising premiums by as much as 50 percent or more, cutting back on coverage or leaving entire states altogether. Nationally, over the last decade, insurers paid out more in claims than they received in premiums, according to the ratings firm Moody’s, and those losses are increasing.”

Northern hemisphere temperatures

Researchers have concluded that the summer of 2023 was the warmest in 2,000 years. “The summer of 2023 was exceptionally hot. Scientists have already established that it was the warmest Northern Hemisphere summer since around 1850, when people started systematically measuring and recording temperatures. Now, researchers say it was the hottest in 2,000 years, according to a new study published in the journal Nature that compares 2023 with a longer temperature record across most of the Northern Hemisphere. The study goes back before the advent of thermometers and weather stations, to the year A.D. 1, using evidence from tree rings.”

planetary climate shift

Scientists are worried that pronounced increases in global air and ocean temperatures over the past year could signal a shift of the planet’s climate into overdrive. According to Gavin Schmidt, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, these increases “could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated.” Scientists have so far been unable to explain the recent temperature increases.

ABOUT WPS AND ITS QUARTERLY ANALYSES

Water, Peace and Security (WPS) Partnership. The WPS Partnership offers a platform where actors from national governments of developing countries and the global development, diplomacy, defense, and disaster relief sectors can identify potential water-related conflict hotspots before violence erupts, begin to understand the local context, prioritize opportunities for water interventions, and undertake capacity development and dialogue activities.

The Long Term Global Early Warning Tool. Our Global Early Warning Tool provides the initial step in a multi-step process, employing machine-learning to predict conflict over the coming 12 months in Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia.  It does this on the basis of 15-20 global indicators that serve as model inputs. These indicators were selected as most significant in predicting conflict from among over 200 indicators tested. We define conflict as one that produces 10 or more deaths in any given second subnational administrative unit over a 12-month period. Generally speaking, our predictions of ongoing conflict are a lot more accurate than our predictions of emerging conflict. We continue to work on improving our model and extending its geographic coverage. So far it has captured 86% of future conflicts, successfully forecasting more than 9 in 10 “ongoing conflicts” and 6 in 10 “emerging conflicts”.[1]

The Short Term Global Early Warning Tool. We also predict the intensity and direction of conflict events over the next two months.  This sheds extra detail on areas experiencing conflict.  Our predictions have been on average within 2 events of the actual events.  Though the quarterly update focuses mainly on the 12-month forecast, information from the short-term forecast is also included. 

Quarterly analyses. We are publishing quarterly analyses to accompany our updated maps. These quarterly analyses flag some of the hotspot areas we are tracking and describe what journalists and other actors are seeing on the ground. While we are primarily concerned with water- and climate-related conflict, the tool is designed to forecast any type of violent conflict (and can therefore be used by a variety of users interested in conflict).

Our multistep process. Early warning is very important, especially given limits to the number of problems that national and international actors can track and address at one time. Our Global Early Warning Tool ensures that emerging conflicts can get the attention they need, early enough that potential risks can still be mitigated. Our regional- and local-level tools then support the next steps in the process and can be used to verify (or disprove) global model predictions, better understand regional and local conflict dynamics, and begin to identify opportunities for mitigating risk. WPS partners offer training and capacity development to global-, national-, and local-level actors to help them better manage risks. We can also help build constructive dialogues among parties to disputes (and other key stakeholders) that can engender water-related cooperation, peacebuilding, and design of conflict-sensitive interventions.

Do you want to learn more about how the Global Early Warning Tool works or how you can use it yourself? The WPS partnership has recently launched the first two modules of a free online e-learning module. Module 2 is dedicated to the function, generation and application of the Global Tool, including a practical walk-through to explore the tools’ capabilities yourself. You can find the course here: Module 2: The Global Early Warning Tool.