WPS GLOBAL EARLY WARNING TOOL MARCH 2024 QUARTERLY ANALYSIS 

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QUARTERLY OVERVIEW

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT 

These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges.  See complete story in the next section.  

Africa  

• North Africa: Drought conditions are depleting water reserves and decimating crops across the region, including Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. 
• Ethiopia: War, drought, and the temporary suspension of aid have created acute food insecurity in many parts of Ethiopia.   
• East Africa: Torrential rains and flash floods kill over 350 people and displace over 1 million across Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Tanzania. 
• DRC and Congo-Brazzaville: The Congo River rose to its highest level in six decades following heavy rains, devastating Kinshasa and many smaller cities and towns throughout the region. 

Middle East 

• Gaza: Lack of access to food and clean water continues, with many civilians suffering from gastrointestinal illnesses, hunger, and even starvation. 
• Iran: Iran continues to suffer through devastating drought. 
• Afghanistan: Afghanistan also continues suffering through years of severe drought. 
• Afghanistan and Central Asia: The Taliban are forging ahead with development of the Qosh Tepa Irrigation Canal, which will – if completed – divert a considerable amount of water away from Central Asia, much to the dismay of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. 

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST 

These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest. See complete story in the next section.

Africa 

• Zimbabwe:  El Niño-related rainfall deficits are expected in key cropping areas during the crucial December-January planting period, impacting crop yields in 2024.   

Asia 

• Vietnam: Low flows in the region’s canal system hampers transport of farmers’ rice harvests.  

Europe 

• Southern Europe: The same drought that is impacting parts of North Africa is also impacting parts of southern Europe. 

South America  

• Chile: Wildfires have continued into 2024, killing over 120 people in the Valparaiso region in early February. 
• Amazon Basin: Scientists studying the current drought have found that the whole basin has been in severe or exceptional drought during the second half of 2023.   

North America 

• Mexico: Warmer and drier conditions, along with high water demand and many other challenges in Mexico City, a city of 21 million inhabitants, has led to severe water shortages and intermittent water supply. 
• United States: Atmospheric rivers again pound southern California this Winter (as they did last Winter), causing flooding, mudslides, and widespread destruction.  

Global 

• Global Food Prices: Global food prices have fallen back to 2021 levels. This follows a spike in 2022 amidst the pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine. 
• Global Trade: Extreme drought in the Panama region has left Gatún Lake at its lowest level ever for the start of a dry season. Gatún Lake enables the Panama Canal to function, and its low water level means that vastly fewer ships can pass through the canal. 
• Global Groundwater Levels: A new study of nearly 1,700 aquifers across more than 40 countries finds that groundwater levels in almost half have fallen since 2000. Only about 7% had levels that rose. 

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT 

NORTH AFRICA: SEVERE DROUGHT 

In our last quarterly report, we noted that drought had left dams throughout Morocco only 23% full, on average, with some dams, such as the Al-Massira which supplies Casablanca, completely depleted as of November.  The NASA Earth Observatory observed in mid-February that “several years of drought have left a mark on Morocco. Satellite observations of the North African country show that croplands and wildlands that are normally green and lush in the rainy winter months are instead parched and brown, and reservoirs that once brimmed with water are nearly empty.” This drought is not only impacting Morocco. It is also depleting reserves and impacting agriculture throughout much of North Africa. Gro Intelligence writes that a third consecutive year of drought may force Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia to increase wheat imports again in 2024 and 2025.   

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts emerging conflict - over 10 fatalities in the next year -  in the Oriental region, but the WPS short-term conflict forecast not not predict any conflict events over the next 2 months. 

ETHIOPIA: ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY 

War, drought, and the temporary suspension of aid have created acute food insecurity in many parts of Ethiopia, including Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia. The Guardian reported in February that “the hunger crisis is not just confined to Tigray. Across Ethiopia, one in six of the 120 million population need food aid because of drought, conflict and rising inflation. The halt to aid worsened the situation, especially among internally displaced people who cannot return home to farm their land.” In early February, Ethiopia’s ombudsman confirmed at least 351 starvation deaths in Tigray and 21 in neighboring Amhara, which is also facing instability and drought. The suspension of aid was lifted in December, but the threats remain severe. The BBC reports similar conditions in Ethiopia. 

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts conflict in every region of Ethiopia. The WPS short-term conflict forecast predicts increases in certain parts of Ethiopia, and over 100 conflict events in the Amhara region and over 75 events in the Oromia region.

EAST AFRICA: EL NIÑO BRINGS DEADLY FLOODING 

Elsewhere in East Africa, people have been grappling with deadly floods. As El Niño replaced La Niña last year, much of the region flipped from unprecedented drought to devastating floods. In late November, NPR reported that “this year, the rains have not stopped. The widespread flooding, which has killed nearly 300 people in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia, has been described as the worst in decades by the United Nations and others, exacerbating an already precarious situation in many parts of East Africa.” In early December, CNN reported that torrential rains and flash floods had killed over 350 people and displaced over 1 million across Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia and Tanzania. 

The WPS long-term and short-term conflict forecasts currently predicts conflict across Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia, but no conflict in Tanzania.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO: NEAR-RECORD FLOODING 

The Congo River rose to its highest level in six decades following heavy rains. The flooding brought devastation throughout the DRC and Congo-Brazzaville, submerging houses, schools, hospitals, and churches. “In Kinshasa, flooding is common but this year the River Congo has risen just shy of 6.26 metres, the level reached during record flooding in 1961.” 

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts ongoing and emerging conflict across many regions in the DRC. The WPS short-term conflict forecast predicts over 100 events in the Ituri region.

GAZA: GROWING DRINKING WATER and Famine CRISIS 

In our last Quarterly Analysis, we reported that the bombing and a fuel embargo in Gaza were leaving citizens without sources of clean drinking water, prompting growing alarm. Lack of access to food and clean water continues, with many civilians suffering from gastrointestinal illnesses, hunger, and even starvation. The Middle East Monitor reported in late February that “the Israeli war on Gaza has pushed 85% of the territory’s population into internal displacement amid acute shortages of food, clean water, and medicine, while 60% of the enclave’s infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed, according to the UN.” 

Another water-related issue is the flooding of Hamas’ underground tunnel system by the Israeli military. In late January, Israel admitted that it was pumping seawater into the tunnels in an effort to dismantle the system. But experts warn that this effort could impair Gaza’s limited clean water supply. 

The WPS long-term forecast does not have data for Gaza, but the short-term forecast predicts over 75 conflict events in Gaza, a decrease from the past 2 months. 

IRAN: SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES 

Iran continues to suffer through devastating drought. According to Iran International, “Iran is currently grappling with one of its most severe droughts in over half a century, marking the fourth consecutive year of significant water scarcity.” Last summer, extreme heat and water shortages forced people to line up in the streets with jerrycans after taps ran empty in parts of Tehran. But it’s not only citizens in Tehran who are suffering. According to reports, a quarter of Iran’s farmers lost their livelihoods over the past seven years, mainly due to water scarcity. The drought is also causing soil erosion, desertification, and dust storms, affecting nearly half the country’s population.   

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts continued conflict in parts of the south of Iran, and the short-term forecast predicts no events or less than 10 events in different regions of Iran.

AFGHANISTAN: DROUGHT CONTINUES 

Afghanistan also continues suffering through years of severe drought. In early December, IFRC reported that “two thirds of Afghanistan’s population (28.8 million people) are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance as the country enters its third consecutive year of drought and the second year of crippling economic decline.” As of mid-January, there was hardly any snowpack across the country, causing farmers to delay planting. “Winter wheat—wheat making up around 60 percent of Afghans' daily caloric intake—is typically harvested in April and May,” according to an FAO spokesman. "The longer they wait (to plant), the lower the yields will be," he warned, adding that above-average temperatures and lack of precipitation "are clearly an effect of climate change."  

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts continued or emerging conflict in many regions of Afghanistan and the short-term forecast predicts between 25-50 events in Kabul over the next 2 months. 

AFGHANISTAN: CONCERN IN CENTRAL ASIA OVER CANAL 

Afghanistan is digging the Qosh Tepa Irrigation Canal, which will – if completed – divert a considerable amount of water away from Central Asia. “With a length of 285 kilometers and a width of some 100 meters, experts believe it could draw a significant portion of the Amu Darya’s flow while irrigating 550,000 hectares of land.” Two downstream and water-stressed countries – Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are facing a potentially large impact, prompting significant concern. But the Taliban, who inherited the project, are plowing ahead, hoping the project will support livelihoods in a country wracked by years of conflict. “The construction of Qosh Tepa canal is taking place at a time when Afghanistan is facing numerous economic challenges as the country wakes up from four decades of war, with unemployment rates at their peak," according to Zabihullah Mujahid, the Taliban's chief spokesman, in comments to Nikkei Asia. "In such times, this project represents a great source of hope for all our countrymen.” 

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST

ZIMBABWE: DROUGHT AND FOOD INSECURITY 

The UN World Food Programme announced in mid-January that it was working with Zimbabwe’s government and other aid agencies to feed 2.7 million rural people. VOA reports that over 60% of Zimbabwe's 15 million people live in rural areas. “Their life is increasingly affected by a cycle of drought and floods aggravated by climate change. Dry spells are becoming longer and more severe. For decades, Zimbabwe’s rainy season reliably ran from October to March. It has become erratic in recent years, sometimes starting only in December and ending sooner.” The Famine Early Warning System estimates that 20 million people in southern Africa will need food relief between January and March – the region’s lean season. “Many people in the areas of highest concern such as Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, parts of Mozambique and southern Madagascar will be unable to feed themselves into early 2025 due to El Niño,” according to the US Agency for International Development. The WPS long-term and short-term forecast does not predict conflict in Zimbabwe.

VIETNAM: EARLY AND PROLONGED HEATWAVE  

Southern Vietnam suffered through an early and prolonged heatwave in February, which has contributed to lower flows in the region’s canal system and hampered transport of farmers’ rice harvests. In addition, poor rains have forced farmers to irrigate using canal water, further lowering flows. 

The WPS long-term and short-term forecast does not predict conflict in Vietnam.

SOUTHERN EUROPE: Drought

The same drought that is impacting parts of North Africa is also impacting parts of southern Europe. In mid-February, the European Commission announced that “long-lasting, above-average temperatures, warm spells and poor precipitation have led to severe drought conditions in the Mediterranean region, affecting numerous areas across southern Italy, southern Spain, Malta, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.” The Commission also noted that the drought’s severity is expected to persist into the Spring season.  A drought emergency was declared on February 1 in the Spanish region of Catalonia, as water reserves fell below 16%. Water use restrictions have also been ordered in southern Portugal. And reservoirs in Sicily have fallen below the alert level and water rationing may be necessary. An opinion writer for The Guardian writes that “uncertainty about crop production, prices and water supplies explains part of the unease of those farmers blocking roads and protesting in the streets of Spanish cities, after the recent example of their counterparts in France, Belgium and Germany.”   

CHILE: DEVASTATING WILDFIRES 

In our last quarterly update, we reported that Chile experienced the deadliest wildfire season in a decade last year. Wildfires have continued into 2024, killing over 120 people in the Valparaiso region in early February. President Gabriel Boric said the fires were “the worst catastrophe to hit the country since the earthquake of 27 February 2010.” The New York Times reported that several other countries in South America were also battling wildfires, including Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Argentina. “The cyclical climate phenomenon known as El Niño has exacerbated droughts and high temperatures through parts of the continent, creating conditions that experts say are ripe for forest fires.” 

AMAZON RIVER: SEVERE DROUGHT 

In our last quarterly update, we reported that drought has caused Amazon River levels to fall to historic lows.  The Rio Negro, a tributary of the Amazon in Brazil reached a 121 year low in mid-October. In a region dependent on the Amazon for food, water, economic activities, and transportation, the drought has left communities in the region stranded. Scientists studying the drought have found that the whole Amazon River Basin has been in severe or exceptional drought during the second half of 2023. One of their main findings, published in January 2024, is that “highly vulnerable populations [have been] disproportionately affected by the drought. Small-holder farmers, indigenous-, rural- and river communities across the region [are] among the most vulnerable due to high poverty rates and their high dependency on agricultural food production, availability of freshwater, and import of goods via rivers.” 

MEXICO: MEXICO CITY FACING SEVERE WATER SHORTAGES 

Warmer and drier conditions, along with high water demand and many other challenges in this city of 21 million has led to severe water shortages and intermittent water supply. “Frustrations over the situation have fueled unrest. In January, protesters in the municipality of Acambay forced open the gate of an office of Mexico’s National Water Commission and broke windows.” Other communities in the city are protesting as well, as people in many neighborhoods are forced to wait in line for scarce supplies delivered via tanker trucks. Underground aquifers supply most of the city’s water, but these sources are problematic, as over-pumping is causing the city to steadily sink. The other major source of water is the Cutzamala system, a complex inter-basin transfer scheme that pumps water from far-away sources up into the city (Mexico City is situated in valley high up in the mountains). There are many medium- and longer-term actions that the city could take to address the problem, from plugging leaks to promoting wastewater treatment and re-use to banking excess flows during the summer rainy season. For now, however, the city is scrambling to address a problem that is spiraling out of control. 

UNITED STATES: ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS POUND CALIFORNIA 

As of mid-February 2024, Los Angeles had already endured a year’s worth of rainfall. The latest storm caused at least 475 mudslides in the Los Angeles area. Atmospheric rivers also caused widespread damage to the state. These heavy rainfall events, like the wildfires seen far to the south in Chile, bear the fingerprints of El Niño and climate change. A writer for the New York Times observed in early February that “two far-flung corners of the world, known for their temperate climates, are being buffeted by deadly disasters. Wildfires have killed more than 120 people as they swept the forested hillsides of Chile, and record-breaking rains have swelled rivers and triggered mudslides in California. Behind these risks are two powerful forces: Climate change, which can intensify both rain and drought, and the natural weather phenomenon known as El Niño, which can also supersize extreme weather.” 

GLOBAL FOOD PRICES 

Global food prices have fallen back to 2021 levels, according to Statista. This follows a spike in 2022 amidst the pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine. “The [FAO Food Price Index] stood at 118.5 points in December, indicating an 18.5 percent increase in global food commodity prices compared to the 2014-2016 base period. It had hit a high of nearly 160 points in March 2022 shortly after the invasion of Ukraine.” Many poor communities worldwide continue to face food affordability issues, of course. But at least prices are moving in the right direction.  

GLOBAL TRADE  

Extreme drought in the Panama region has left Gatún Lake at its lowest level ever for the start of a dry season.  Gatún Lake enables the Panama Canal to function, and its low water level means that vastly fewer ships can pass through the canal. “The Panama Canal Authority has reduced daily traffic through the narrow corridor by nearly 40 percent compared with last year. Many ships have already diverted to longer ocean routes, which increases both costs and carbon emissions, while the global shipping company Maersk recently announced they will shift some of their cargo to rail.” The drought has been exacerbated by (you guessed it by now!) El Niño. But the drought isn’t the only driver of diminishing lake levels. “Panama’s population has quadrupled since the 1950s, and more than half the country relies on the canal’s reservoirs — Gatún Lake and the smaller Alajuela — for clean drinking water.” 

GLOBAL GROUNDWATER LEVELS 

A new study of nearly 1,700 aquifers across more than 40 countries finds that groundwater levels in almost half have fallen since 2000. Only about 7% had levels that rose. “The declines were most apparent in regions with dry climates and a lot of land cultivated for agriculture, including California’s Central Valley and the High Plains region in the United States. The researchers also found large areas of sharply falling groundwater in Iran.” The research confirms previous findings of groundwater declines found with satellites and models. “The study relies on data from about 170,000 monitoring wells that government agencies and researchers use to track the water table. Well data is not available or does not cover enough years everywhere, so the researchers were limited to studying aquifers in about 40 countries and territories.” 

ABOUT WPS AND ITS QUARTERLY ANALYSES

Water, Peace and Security (WPS) Partnership. The WPS Partnership offers a platform where actors from national governments of developing countries and the global development, diplomacy, defense, and disaster relief sectors can identify potential water-related conflict hotspots before violence erupts, begin to understand the local context, prioritize opportunities for water interventions, and undertake capacity development and dialogue activities.

The Long Term Global Early Warning Tool. Our Global Early Warning Tool provides the initial step in a multi-step process, employing machine-learning to predict conflict over the coming 12 months in Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia.  It does this on the basis of 15-20 global indicators that serve as model inputs. These indicators were selected as most significant in predicting conflict from among over 200 indicators tested. We define conflict as one that produces 10 or more deaths in any given second subnational administrative unit over a 12-month period. Generally speaking, our predictions of ongoing conflict are a lot more accurate than our predictions of emerging conflict. We continue to work on improving our model and extending its geographic coverage. So far it has captured 86% of future conflicts, successfully forecasting more than 9 in 10 “ongoing conflicts” and 6 in 10 “emerging conflicts”.

The Short Term Global Early Warning Tool. We also predict the intensity and direction of conflict events over the next two months.  This sheds extra detail on areas experiencing conflict.  Our predictions have been on average within 2 events of the actual events.  Though the quarterly update focuses mainly on the 12-month forecast, information from the short-term forecast is also included. 

Quarterly analyses. We are publishing quarterly analyses to accompany our updated maps. These quarterly analyses flag some of the hotspot areas we are tracking and describe what journalists and other actors are seeing on the ground. While we are primarily concerned with water- and climate-related conflict, the tool is designed to forecast any type of violent conflict (and can therefore be used by a variety of users interested in conflict).

Our multistep process. Early warning is very important, especially given limits to the number of problems that national and international actors can track and address at one time. Our Global Early Warning Tool ensures that emerging conflicts can get the attention they need, early enough that potential risks can still be mitigated. Our regional- and local-level tools then support the next steps in the process and can be used to verify (or disprove) global model predictions, better understand regional and local conflict dynamics, and begin to identify opportunities for mitigating risk. WPS partners offer training and capacity development to global-, national-, and local-level actors to help them better manage risks. We can also help build constructive dialogues among parties to disputes (and other key stakeholders) that can engender water-related cooperation, peacebuilding, and design of conflict-sensitive interventions.

Do you want to learn more about how the Global Early Warning Tool works or how you can use it yourself? The WPS partnership has recently launched the first two modules of a free online e-learning module. Module 2 is dedicated to the function, generation and application of the Global Tool, including a practical walk-through to explore the tools’ capabilities yourself. You can find the course here: Module 2: The Global Early Warning Tool.