Whereas the global tool identifies potential conflict hotspots, the local approach builds towards the assessment of alternative intervention options locally.
Zooming in Based on Global Data
Once a hotspot of a possible conflict has been identified by the global model, we can zoom in to the local level to verify this risk. We can facilitate this zoom-in by combining a hydrological model (Wflow) that uses data of rainfall and evaporation with a water use and allocation model (Ribasim) to provide insight into the hydrological dimension of the water and security nexus. This supports the identification of the key drivers of the conflict and the development of adequate and problem-specific responses to it.
Following this zoom-in, next steps can be taken in dialogue processes with local actors. In these steps, the specific context of the water-related societal risks is analysed and different interventions are assessed. The following tools can be used to facilitate the knowledge-based dialogue and decision-making processes.
Human Responses Modelling
Human responses modelling provides insight in the push and pull factors within a certain context on potential human responses. System dynamics modelling can be used to obtain a broader understanding of the system by modelling the interconnectedness of the hydrological system and the socio-economic context. Possible consequences of changes in the systems can be assessed and interventions can be analysed.
To support timely and adequate decision-making at different levels and in different domains, dashboards can be developed that facilitate a visualisation of information based on underlying models. This will support a joint understanding of how a specific system functions, what impacts certain changes in the system have on societal stability and how interventions might reduce these consequences.
Regional Tool Application