The Omo-Gibe Basin—one of Ethiopia’s most strategically important yet socially fragile river systems—took centre stage during the WPS Conference session “Water for Peace: Conflict-sensitive Basin Management in Ethiopia’s Omo-Gibe Basin.” As the basin continues to shape national energy production, local livelihoods and downstream ecosystems, speakers from Ethiopia, Kenya and the Water, Peace and Security (WPS) partnership explored how science, governance reform and cross-border cooperation can help prevent conflict and promote cooperation in this rapidly changing landscape.
The basin holds an estimated 17 billion cubic metres of surface water. Despite this abundance, communities face severe droughts and destructive floods, and pastoralists often struggle to benefit from growing water and agricultural investments. While large irrigation schemes of 10,000 to 30,000 hectares are multiplying—supported by government and private investors—pastoral communities have received far less support to diversify or transition toward farming. Participants noted that, with Gibe IV nearly complete and Gibe V under design, greater inclusion of pastoralists in irrigation development could significantly improve livelihoods and reduce tensions.
Flooding paradox
Seleshi Yalew of WPS partner IHE Delft presented an innovative modelling platform designed not only to analyse hydrology but to serve as a negotiation platform for farmers, pastoralists, government institutions and civil society. Millions of scenarios were tested with stakeholders interpreting the results together. The modelling revealed that the basin’s challenges stem less from water scarcity — full irrigation would still use only a small share of total flow — and more from timing and distribution of water. Seasonal variability, reservoir release schedules and uneven distribution of risks and benefits create a localised shortage in midstream communities such as the Nyangatom, even as downstream areas near Lake Turkana, including the Dasanech settlements, continue to experience flooding. This “flooding paradox” — water scarcity below the reservoirs coexisting with flooding nearer the Lake downstream — signals that the issue cannot be understood from reservoir operations alone. It points to the need for a broader perspective that incorporates hydro-climatic variability, anthropogenic activities between the reservoirs and the lake, and the Lake’s hydrodynamics, underscoring the need for more adaptive and jointly negotiated reservoir operations, grounded in this wider system understanding.
Ethiopia’s National Integrated Water Resources Management Plan
Teketel Tadesse of Ethiopia’s Ministry of Water and Energy highlighted Ethiopia’s new National Integrated Water Resources Management Plan. Through the guiding principle of “one basin, one plan”, the programme aims to address the challenges of limited capacity, fragmented coordination and inadequate stakeholder inclusion of the past. A high-level Basin Council chaired by the Prime Minister, combined with basin and sub-basin platforms supported by WPS, is giving communities and local governments a structured channel to influence water decisions. Tadesse emphasised that integrating indigenous knowledge and cultural practices into water allocation plans is becoming increasingly important as development accelerates.
Transboundary river basin cooperation
The Kenyan perspective added urgency, because the Omo River feeds Lake Turkana. Developments upstream directly affect fisheries, pastoral economies and environmental conditions downstream. Several participants of the session raised concerns about rising water levels in Lake Turkana, which have destroyed cultural sites and pushed crocodiles closer to communities, thus increasing human–wildlife conflict. Nevertheless, dam releases have been stable — spillways have not been used since 2019 — suggesting other factors such as climate variability, catchment degradation and natural inflows may be driving the rise. Yalew conceded more research is needed to fully identify the causes.
Emerging conflicts between irrigators and indigenous groups were another concern. Examples included pastoralists moving cattle onto elevated investor lands during floods, triggering disputes. Participants asked whether the cascade of dams would ultimately benefit or marginalise communities such as the Dassanech and Nyangatom. Yalew concluded that responsible resource management — ensuring water access for both irrigated agriculture and local livelihoods—remains a significant challenge that requires ongoing dialogue.
Establishing trust and dialogue
In his closing remarks, Yasir Mohamed, IHE Delft lead for the Water, Peace and Security partnership, underscored how far the process has come: “When the project started in 2021, some stakeholders were too sensitive even to use the word ‘conflict.’ We used satellite data for the models. Today stakeholders provide the data themselves. Hydropower companies now understand the needs of pastoralists, and pastoralists understand how hydropower operates.”
He added that while many scientific questions remain — such as the exact drivers of Lake Turkana’s water rise — the project has succeeded in establishing trust and dialogue. “One of the most innovative outcomes,” he noted, “is how stakeholders are now testing the meaning of equity — between investors, pastoralists, hydropower operators and downstream communities. This lesson extends far beyond the Omo-Gibe Basin.”
