WPS GLOBAL EARLY WARNING TOOL October 2024 QUARTERLY ANALYSIS

QUARTERLY OVERVIEW

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT

These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges.  See complete story in the following section.

Africa

• East Africa: Flooding has uprooted 1.2 million people in Sudan and South Sudan.
• East Africa: Food insecurity worsens across the IGAD region, which includes Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda.
• Central and West Africa: Parts of the region have experienced heavy flooding over a particularly intense rainy season.
• Southern Africa: A year-long drought that ended in mid-June is still impacting 70 million people in the region.
• Africa: Dams have collapsed in Sudan, Nigeria, and Kenya.

Middle East

• Iran: Iran’s airport on the Persian Gulf registers a temperature of 108 F (42 C) and a heat index of 149 F (65 C).
• West Bank, Gaza, Israel and Lebanon: The conflict in Gaza, the West Bank, Israel and now Lebanon continues. In late September, Israeli settlers further restricted access to water in the West Bank, taking over freshwater springs.

Asia

• Bangladesh: Millions stranded by flooding following release of water from a dam in upstream India.

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST

These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest. See complete story below.

Africa

• Algeria: Citizens in the central Algerian city of Tiaret stage violent riots as taps run dry and people are forced to queue up for water.

Middle East

• Dubai: Dubai’s temperature reaches a temperature of 113 F (45 C) and a heat index of 144 F (62 C).

Asia

• China: Devastating floods cause widespread destruction across parts of China.
• Southeast Asia: Typhoon Yagi, the most powerful storm to hit Asia this year, causes death and destruction across several Southeast Asian countries.
• Nepal: Heavy reainfall caused extreme flooding in Kathmandu and landslides cutting off the city.

Europe

• European Union: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announces a new strategy for sustainable management of water.
• France: Tensions escalate as the government implements a new policy to build 100 new basins by the end of the year.
• Spain: Extreme heat and prolonged drought in Alicante province on the southeastern coast have led to saltwater intrusion into municipal drinking water supplies.
• Greece: Several Greek islands declare states of emergency over water shortages.
• Central Europe: The worst flooding in at least two decades leaves a trail of destruction.

South America

• South America: Much of the region is suffering from extreme drought, which is fueling wildfires, air pollution, and declining river levels.

North America

• Mexico: Mexico City’s reservoir levels remain low, despite recent rainfall.
• United States: Hurricane Helene devestates the Southeastern United States.
• United States: Texas officials are increasingly worried about water shortfalls in some parts of the state and running out of water completely in others.
• United States: Rapid sea level rise could swamp millions of septic systems across the U.S. South, causing widespread pollution and costing billions of dollars to fix.  

Global

• Global: Monday, July 22 was the hottest day ever recorded by humans, and in early September it was reported that the Earth endured its second consecutive hottest summer ever recorded.
• Global: The WMO reported that 2023 was the driest year for global rivers in over three decades.

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT 

These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges.

EAST AFRICA: FLOODING

As of early September, the media report that 1.2 million people have been uprooted by floods in Sudan and South Sudan. In Sudan, civil war has displaced millions into flood-prone zones. According to the UN, nearly half a million people have been impacted by heavy rain and flooding, especially in the north and east. South Sudan is said to be experiencing its worst floods in decades, with 700,000 people impacted across 30 of 78 counties.

The WPS long-term model forecasts continued conflict in much of the region.

EAST AFRICA: FOOD INSECURITY WORSENS

Food insecurity has worsened across the IGAD region, which includes Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda. A recent report revealed that approximately 62.9 million people in the region were experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity in 2024. While many drivers are at play, “frequent and severe climate extremes are significant contributors to regional food insecurity. This includes the lingering effects of a severe drought in the Eastern Horn of Africa from 2020 to 2023 and the recent widespread floods associated with El Niño.”

The WPS long-term model forecasts continued conflict in much of the region and the short-term model forecasts over 100 events in Amhara, Ethiopia.

CENTRAL AND WEST AFRICA: FLOODING

Parts of the region have experienced heavy flooding over a particularly intense rainy season. According to the UN in early September, “weeks of torrential rains in Chad have left 341 people dead and some 1.5 million affected since July.” In Niger, intense rainfall since June have killed 273 people and affected over 700,000, In Nigeria, 29 of 36 states have been hit by riverine flooding, impacting over 600,000 people.

The WPS long-term model forecasts continued conflict in much of the region.

SOUTHERN AFRICA: SEVERE DROUGHT

In our last quarterly update, we reported that severe drought since the fall of 2023 had been affecting large parts of southern Africa, including Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, parts of Mozambique, Angola, and Botswana, as well as Lesotho, Eswatini, and southern Madagascar. In June, UN OCHA warned that “urgent action is needed to save the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in Southern Africa, many of whom are in the grip of the region’s worst drought in 100 years.” While the year-long drought was said to have ended in mid-June, it was reported in mid-August that 70 million people in southern Africa were still suffering from its effects.

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts continued conflict in Madagascar and Northeastern Mozambique. 

Africa: Dams In Danger

Arbaat dam in Sudan collapsed in late August, causing catastrophic flooding in downstream communities with over 60 people reported dead, and 20 villages destroyed, though the impacts are likely larger. In September, 37 people were reported dead and thousands displaced after the Alua dam in northeastern Nigeria burst. These collapses are not unique: Earlier this year, a dam collapsed in Kenya, and this week marks the first anniversary of the collapse of two dams upstream of the coastal town of Derna in Libya, devastating the town and causing an estimated 6,000 to 20,000 casualties.With extreme weather events increasing due to climate change, many of the 70,000+ dams in the world are at a higher risk of failure, and conflict exacerbates the risks even more, with activities such as sabotage and discontinued maintenance.

Damaged trucks buried in the mud after the collapse of the Arbaat Dam, 40km north of Port Sudan following heavy rains and torrential floods on August 25, 2024. (Photo by AFP)

IRAN

Iran’s airport on the Persian Gulf registers a temperature of 108 F (42 C) in mid-July and a heat index of 149 F (65 C).  Researchers have also found that 3.5% of Iran's area is subsiding due to groundwater extraction. 

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts continued conflict in Fars, Kerman, and Sistan and Baluchestan.

A motorcyclist has a drink from a bottle to cool off during a heat wave in Tehran on July 11, 2023. The beginning of July was the hottest week on record for the planet, according to early findings on July 10 from the World Meteorological Organization, after a series of scorching days saw global temperature records tumble. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP) (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)

West Bank, Gaza, Israel and Lebanon

The conflict in Gaza, the West Bank, Israel and now Lebanon continues, and in late September, Israeli settlers further restricted access to water in the West Bank, taking over freshwater springs to fuel illegal settler outpost. In some Palestinian communities water only flows once a month to taps.  As part of the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon, over one million people have been displaced in the last week. 

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts continued conflict in the region. 

BANGLADESH: MASSIVE FLOODING

Millions of people in the city of Feni in southeast Bangladesh were stranded by flooding in late August following the release of water from a dam in upstream India. Nearly 5 million people were impacted and at least 18 people killed. Bangladesh blamed India for releasing water from the dam without warning. “India denied the dam release was deliberate and said excessive rain was a factor – although it conceded that a power outage and communications breakdown meant they failed to issue the usual warning to neighbors downstream.” There was suspicion in Bangladesh that the release may have been retribution for the ejection of Bangladesh’s prime minister three weeks prior. Prime Minister Hasina had been friendly to New Delhi, and following her ouster, “reports emerged of reprisal attacks against people viewed as loyal to Hasina’s party – many of them Hindus – which sparked major concern in neighboring Hindu-majority India.”

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts continued conflict in all of Bangladesh.

SOUTHEAST ASIA: LARGE-SCALE FLOODING

Typhoon Yagi, the most powerful storm to hit Asia this year, caused death and destruction across several Southeast Asian countries. “At least 74 people have died and scores more are still missing in Myanmar following heavy flooding and landslides caused by Typhoon Yagi [in mid-September]. The flooding across the civil war-torn country has impacted more than 450 villages and wards, according to Myanmar News Agency.” Around 65,000 homes were destroyed.

The WPS long-term forecast currently predicts continued conflict in all of Myanmar.

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST

These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest.

ALGERIA: VIOLENT RIOTS AS TAPS RUN DRY

Citizens in the central Algerian city of Tiaret stage violent riots as taps run dry and people are forced to queue up for water. “The region, located on a semi-arid high desert plateau increasingly plagued by extreme heat, gets its water from three dammed reservoirs that are shrinking as temperatures spike and less rain falls. The reservoirs have become less functional due to a ‘death of volume’ and are reduced to 20% of their capacity, agricultural engineer Said Ouarad said.”

Reservoir levels in Barrage de Dahmouni in Algeria are at record lows. Source: Global Water Watch. 

DUBAI

Dubai reached a temperature of 113 F (45 C) in mid-July and a heat index of 144 F (62 C). “The heat, fueled by a combination of factors - from the brutal heat dome to the impact of human-caused climate change - is pushing the boundaries of heat tolerance for people living in the Middle East that have seen the heat index reaching 140 or 150 Fahrenheit... The extreme heat comes a month after the temperature soared to at least 125 degrees Fahrenheit in Saudi Arabia, where more than 1,300 Muslims pilgrims died during the annual Hajj, or pilgrimage to Mecca, according to Human Rights Watch.”

CHINA: DEVASTATING FLOODING

Devastating floods caused widespread destruction across parts of China in mid-July. “Tens of thousands have been evacuated across multiple provinces in the country following deadly floods and landslides, which have blocked highways, destroyed homes and caused devastating financial losses as they wiped out crops and livestock.” These crises have occurred against a backdrop of mounting social frustration with the country’s sputtering economy. “The government has in recent years grown increasingly alert to the domestic risk of climate change – including its potential impact on food security as drought and floods hit lands critical for the national grain supply.” If the July floods weren’t enough, in mid-September Shanghai was hit by the strongest typhoon in 75 years.

Nepal: Extreme flooding in Kathmandu

Heavy rain caused severe flooding in Kathmandu and deadly landslides.  Over 200 people died from the storm.  The extreme rain also damaged 16 hydroelectric powerplants and 37 highways. This was some of the worst flash flooding caused by the strongest monsoon rains in 20 years - worsened by urban growth on the flood plains of the Bagmati River. 

A drone view shows the Nakhu River flooding and affecting the riverbanks and homes during heavy rainfall in Lalitpur, Nepal, on September 28, 2024. (Photo by Ambir Tolang/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

EUROPEAN UNION: NEW WATER STRATEGY

In mid-July, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a new strategy for sustainable management of water. The strategy will include a plan for agriculture to adapt to climate change and, in parallel, a plan for sustainable management of the precious resource of water.”

FRANCE: INCREASING TENSIONS OVER WATER

Tensions over water escalated in July as the government continued with implementation of a new policy to build 100 new basins by the end of the year. These so-called “mega basins” are up to 18 hectares in size and are meant to hold water over the winter for use by irrigators in the summer. But many citizens are opposed to the potential impacts such basins could have on the environment and on groundwater levels. “Between 6,000 and 8,000 people are expected to gather and protest [on 19 and 20 July] against the construction of the reservoir [in Deux-Sevres] and the authorities expect clashes with the police, as it has been the case in previous demonstrations.”

SPAIN: SALTWATER CONTAMINATION OF LOCAL DRINKING WATER

Extreme heat and prolonged drought in Alicante province on Spain’s southeastern coast have led to saltwater intrusion into municipal drinking water supplies. Several towns have been affected. “groundwater water levels have dropped, it has made space for seawater to seep in, contaminating the drinking water.”

GREECE: WATER SHORTAGES ON SEVERAL ISLANDS

Several Greek islands declared states of emergency over water shortages in mid-July. Years of very low rainfall, an abnormally hot winter and hot summer, high water demand driven by tourism, and a lack of sustainable water policies are driving the crisis.

CENTRAL EUROPE: DEVASTATING FLOODS

The worst flooding in at least two decades left a trail of destruction, “spreading mud and debris in towns, destroying bridges, submerging cars and leaving authorities and householders with a bill for damages that will run into billions of dollars.” As of September 18, the death toll across the region stood at 23.

SOUTH AMERICA: EXTREME DROUGHT

Much of the region was suffering from extreme drought in mid-September, which was fueling wildfires, air pollution, and declining river levels. “Smoke from intense wildfires in the Amazon rainforest and other parts of Brazil was choking major cities like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro... and wafting into neighboring countries,” including Uruguay and Argentina, according to the Voice of America. Sao Paolo, the largest city in Latin America, catapulted to the top of the ranking of the world’s most polluted cities. Fires associated with agricultural activity and wildfires, aggravated by the country’s worst drought in seven decades, were to blame. South America’s Paraguay River fell to its lowest level ever in the Paraguayan capital of Asuncion. The Parana River in Argentina also fell to year lows. “The Paraguay-Parana system is a waterway of more than 3,400 kilometers (2,113 miles) that runs through Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, as well as landlocked Paraguay and Bolivia.” The river system is used to transport soybeans, corn and other commodities from South American bread baskets. The outlook for river levels is not good in the near-term, owing to La Nina, which brings drier conditions to Paraguay and Argentina.

MEXICO: MEXICO CITY AVOIDS DAY ZERO

In our last quarterly update, we reported that Mexico City, with a population of 23 million, was quickly running out of water, as severe drought, high demand, and poor water management took their toll. As of late July, Mexico City had avoided “Day Zero” (which had been set at June 26), however, reservoir levels remained low, despite recent rainfall.

United States: Hurricane Helene devestates the Southeastern United States

Hurricane Helene made landfall on September 26, 2024 in Florida as a Category 4 hurricane and then continued into Georgia and North Carolina, causing widespread damage along the Blue Ridge Mountains.  There were power outages, and roads and bridges destroyed. The hurricane and susequent damage has killed over 230 people, making Helene the deadliest storm to hit the United States since Katrina.  The recovery is being hindered by misinformation, that is underminding efforts to recover and damaging relations between recovery workers and local residents. As of this writing, Hurricane Milton was poised to strike Florida with possible devastating impacts. More will be written on these impacts in our next quarterly update.

Power outages in Valdosta, Georgia following the Hurricane Helene. NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin, using Black Marble data courtesy of Ranjay Shrestha/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. 

UNITED STATES: WATER SCARCITY IN TEXAS

Texas officials are increasingly worried about water shortfalls in some parts of the state and running out of water completely in others. “The front lines of the crisis is the Rio Grande Valley, where international disputes, declining groundwater, over-pumping from big agricultural growers and — above all — a deteriorating climate has eroded the ability of Texas’ Winter Garden to produce fruits and vegetables amid broader fears of cities in the state running out of water.” Officials are worried about a severe deficit in spending needed on infrastructure and measures to stem the overuse of water. Dysfunction in the state legislature is severely limiting the ability of lawmakers to take needed steps.

UNITED STATES: SLR THREATENS SEPTIC TANKS ACROSS THE SOUTH

Rapid sea level rise could swamp millions of septic systems across the U.S. South, causing widespread pollution and costing billions of dollars to fix. “To work properly, septic systems need to sit above an adequate amount of dry soil that can filter contaminants from wastewater before it reaches local waterways and underground drinking water sources. But in many communities, that buffer is vanishing,” The Washington Post reported.

EARTH’S HOTTEST DAY EVER RECORDED BY HUMANS and HOTTEST SUMMER EVER

Monday, July 22 was the hottest day ever recorded by humans, “beating a record set the day before, as countries across the globe continued to feel the heat, according to the European climate change service.” In early September, it was reported that the Earth had endured its second consecutive hottest summer on record. “For the second summer in a row, global temperatures broke temperature records, according to the European climate service Copernicus, putting this year on track to be the hottest in recorded history. Specifically, summer 2024 was 0.69 degrees Celsius hotter than the 1991 to 2020 average and was, additionally, 0.03 degrees hotter than summer 2023's record-setting temperatures.”

The driest year for global rivers in over three decades

In October, the World Meteorological Organization announced that 2023 was the driest year for global rivers in over three decades.  They also reported that glaciers suffered the largest mass loss in 50 years and that climate change makes hydrological cycle becomes more erratic.

ABOUT WPS AND ITS QUARTERLY ANALYSES

Water, Peace and Security (WPS) Partnership. The WPS Partnership offers a platform where actors from national governments of developing countries and the global development, diplomacy, defense, and disaster relief sectors can identify potential water-related conflict hotspots before violence erupts, begin to understand the local context, prioritize opportunities for water interventions, and undertake capacity development and dialogue activities.

The Long Term Global Early Warning Tool. Our Global Early Warning Tool provides the initial step in a multi-step process, employing machine-learning to predict conflict over the coming 12 months in Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia.  It does this on the basis of 15-20 global indicators that serve as model inputs. These indicators were selected as most significant in predicting conflict from among over 200 indicators tested. We define conflict as one that produces 10 or more deaths in any given second subnational administrative unit over a 12-month period. Generally speaking, our predictions of ongoing conflict are a lot more accurate than our predictions of emerging conflict. We continue to work on improving our model and extending its geographic coverage. So far it has captured 86% of future conflicts, successfully forecasting more than 9 in 10 “ongoing conflicts” and 6 in 10 “emerging conflicts”.[1]

The Short Term Global Early Warning Tool. We also predict the intensity and direction of conflict events over the next two months.  This sheds extra detail on areas experiencing conflict.  Our predictions have been on average within 2 events of the actual events.  Though the quarterly update focuses mainly on the 12-month forecast, information from the short-term forecast is also included. 

Quarterly analyses. We are publishing quarterly analyses to accompany our updated maps. These quarterly analyses flag some of the hotspot areas we are tracking and describe what journalists and other actors are seeing on the ground. While we are primarily concerned with water- and climate-related conflict, the tool is designed to forecast any type of violent conflict (and can therefore be used by a variety of users interested in conflict).

Our multistep process. Early warning is very important, especially given limits to the number of problems that national and international actors can track and address at one time. Our Global Early Warning Tool ensures that emerging conflicts can get the attention they need, early enough that potential risks can still be mitigated. Our regional- and local-level tools then support the next steps in the process and can be used to verify (or disprove) global model predictions, better understand regional and local conflict dynamics, and begin to identify opportunities for mitigating risk. WPS partners offer training and capacity development to global-, national-, and local-level actors to help them better manage risks. We can also help build constructive dialogues among parties to disputes (and other key stakeholders) that can engender water-related cooperation, peacebuilding, and design of conflict-sensitive interventions.

Do you want to learn more about how the Global Early Warning Tool works or how you can use it yourself? The WPS partnership has recently launched the first two modules of a free online e-learning module. Module 2 is dedicated to the function, generation and application of the Global Tool, including a practical walk-through to explore the tools’ capabilities yourself. You can find the course here: Module 2: The Global Early Warning Tool.