WPS GLOBAL EARLY WARNING TOOL January 2025 QUARTERLY ANALYSIS
QUARTERLY OVERVIEW
PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT
These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first level subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges. See complete story in the following section.
Africa
- West and Central Africa: The region continues to experience debilitating impacts from flooding.
- Sudan: Flooding on the White Nile from Rapid Support Forces dam mismanagement.
Asia
- Bangladesh: Floods destroy 1.1 million tons of rice.
OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST
These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest. See complete story below.
Africa
- Southern Africa: The UN warned in mid-October that Southern Africa is facing its worst hunger crisis in decades.
- Morocco: Moroccan parts of the Sahara Desert flooded for the first time in decades.
Asia
- China: The city of Guangzhou saw a 30-year heat record broken in November.
Europe
- Spain: Late October catastrophic floods in eastern Spain killed at least 205 people.
South America
- South America: As of mid-October, record drought was occurring in the Amazon River system.
North America
- U.S.-Mexico: A research article published in November found that Mexicans dependent on rain-fed agriculture are more likely to migrate to the United States illegally following extremely dry seasons.
- United States: North Carolina, which bore the brunt of Hurricane Helene, estimates damages of at least $53 billion.
- United States: New research shows the increasingly important role of evaporation in driving drought conditions in the U.S. West.
Global
- Global: 2024 was the hottest year on record.
- Global: Water crises threaten global food supply.
- Global: Extreme drought areas have increased three-fold since the 1980s.
PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT
These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first level subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges.
WEST and central AFRICA: FLOODING
In our last quarterly update, we reported that parts of the region had experienced heavy flooding over a particularly intense rainy season. The region continued experiencing debilitating impacts from flooding into October, with UNFPA reporting that “widespread flooding continues to devastate West and Central Africa, with nearly 5.1 million people requiring humanitarian assistance. The worst-affected countries include Chad, where nearly 2 million people have been impacted, followed by Niger, Nigeria, and Cameroon, which are also facing severe displacement and damage to essential services.” The WPS global tool forecasts ongoing and emerging conflict in many of these regions.
SUDAN: Flooding on the White Nile from Rapid Support Forces dam Management
In December the Rapid Support Forces closed the Jebel Aulia Dam, that regulated the flow of the White Nile. This has caused widespread displacement of people living along the banks as floodwaters inundate their homes. This is during the Sudanese Civil War that began in April 2023, and has displaced more than 8.2 million people. The WPS long term global tool forecasts ongoing conflict in the region, and the short-term tool forecasts an escalation of conflict in North Darfur, Sudan.
BANGLADESH: FLOODING DESTROYS TONS OF RICE
Reuters reported in mid-October that floods had destroyed “an estimated 1.1 million metric tons of rice, according to data from the agriculture ministry, prompting the country to ramp up imports of the staple grain amid soaring food prices.” The interim government that took over following deadly protests that drove the former prime minister from power “has been struggling to stabilize food prices that have surged nearly 20% in recent months.” The WPS long term global tool forecasts ongoing conflict in the region, but the short term tool forecasts relatively low numbers of conflict events, and a decrease from the previous months.
Residents make their way through a waterlogged street after heavy rainfall in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on October 5, 2024. Source: Getty.
OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST
These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: SEVERE DROUGHt continues
The UN warned in mid-October that Southern Africa is facing its worst hunger crisis in decades. The AP reported that “months of drought in southern Africa triggered by the El Niño weather phenomenon have had a devastating impact on more than 27 million people and caused the region’s worst hunger crisis in decades... The World Food Program warned it could become a ‘full-scale human catastrophe.’ Five countries — Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe — have declared national disasters over the drought and resultant hunger. The WFP estimates that about 21 million children in southern Africa are now malnourished as crops have failed.” Despite these challenges, the WPS long term forecast does not predict conflict in many of these regions.
Morocco: sahara desert floods
Moroccan parts of the Sahara Desert flooded for the first time in decades. CNN reported in mid-October that “striking images from the Sahara Desert show large lakes etched into rolling sand dunes after one of the most arid, barren places in the world was hit with its first floods in decades. The Sahara does experience rain, but usually just a few inches a year and rarely in late summer. Over two days in September, however, intense rain fell in parts of the desert in southeast Morocco, after a low pressure system pushed across northwestern Sahara.”
China: 30-year heat record
The city of Guangzhou saw a 30-year heat record broken in November. The Guardian reported that “one of China’s biggest cities is still officially in summer, despite it being mid-November, as temperatures have failed to drop below the threshold considered necessary to mark the change in season.” Guangzhou is a city of nearly 19 million people in southern China’s Guangdong province.
Spain: catastrophic flooding
Late October catastrophic flooding in eastern Spain killed at least 205 people. CNN reported that a year’s worth of rain fell within a matter of hours. “Parts of the area now look like an extension of the Balearic Sea after unprecedented rainfall turned what should be dry ground into a vast expanse of water, satellite imagery captured on October 30 shows.” A week following the floods, AP reported that “in many of the over 70 impacted localities, mostly located in the southern outskirts of the city of Valencia, people still face shortages of basic goods. Water is back to running through pipes but authorities say it is only for cleaning and not fit for drinking. Lines form at impromptu emergency kitchens and food relief stands in streets still covered with mud and debris... ‘We can estimate that we are facing the biggest payout for a weather-related event that Spain has ever suffered,’ said Mirenchu del Valle Schaan, president of Spain’s Association of Insurance Companies.”
South America: record drought
As of mid-October, record drought was occurring in the Amazon River system. The New York Times reported that “a record-breaking drought that is well into its second year is punishing much of South America, including the Amazon rainforest, upending lives and local economies and providing an alarming glimpse into the future as the effects of climate change become more apparent.” The Amazon River system helps sustain about 30 million people across eight countries.
U.S.-MEXICO: weather deviations and undocumented migration
A research article published in November found that Mexicans dependent on rain-fed agriculture are more likely to migrate to the United States illegally following extremely dry seasons. According to the PNAS article, “undocumented migration was most likely from areas experiencing extreme drought, and migrants were less likely to return to their communities of origin when extreme weather persisted. These findings establish the role of weather shocks in undocumented Mexican migration to, and eventual settlement in, the United States. The findings also suggest that extreme weather conditions, which are likely to increase with climate change, promote clandestine mobility across borders and, thus, expose migrants to risks associated with crossing dangerous terrain and relying upon smugglers.”
UNITED STATES: estimate of hurricane helene damages in north Carolina
North Carolina, which bore the brunt of Hurricane Helene, estimates damages of at least $53 billion. NPR reported in late October that “the catastrophic flooding and destruction caused by Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina likely caused at least a record $53 billion in damages and recovery needs, Gov. Roy Cooper's administration said Wednesday.”
UNITED STATES: INCREASING ROLE OF EVAPORATION in driving DROUGHT
New research shows the increasingly important role of evaporation in driving drought conditions in the U.S. West. In early November, The Washington Post reported that new research published in the journal Science Advances “found that since 2000, rising temperatures — leading to greater evaporation — have done more to contribute to the severity and extent of droughts in the [U.S.] West than a lack of rainfall.” According to one of the study’s authors, hotter temperatures mean that more rainfall will evaporate before it reaches local reservoirs.
Global temperatures are likely to set a record this year
NASA scientists reported that 2024 was the hottest year on record. Temperatures in 2024 were 1.28 degrees Celsius (2.3° F) above the 20th-century baseline.
NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, based on data from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
Global food supply at risk
In mid-October, The New York Times reported that “the world’s food supply is under threat because so much of what we eat is concentrated in so few countries, and many of those countries are increasingly facing a water shortage. That’s the conclusion of three independent studies published this week. One study, published by World Resources Institute, found that one quarter of the world’s crops is grown in places where the water supply is stressed, unreliable or both. A second, published by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water, crunched the data slightly differently, concluding that half the world’s food production is in areas where water availability is projected to decline. The third study, published by the European Union’s environmental agency, found that even some ordinarily wet parts of the continent face a drying trend.”
GLOBAL drought area increases
Extreme drought areas have increased three-fold since the 1980s. In late October, the BBC reported that “the area of land surface affected by extreme drought has trebled since the 1980s, [according to] a new report into the effects of climate change... Forty-eight per cent of the Earth’s land surface had at least one month of extreme drought last year, according to analysis by the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change - up from an average of 15% during the 1980s. Almost a third of the world - 30% - experienced extreme drought for three months or longer in 2023. In the 1980s, the average was 5%.”
ABOUT WPS AND ITS QUARTERLY ANALYSES
Water, Peace and Security (WPS) Partnership. The WPS Partnership offers a platform where actors from national governments of developing countries and the global development, diplomacy, defense, and disaster relief sectors can identify potential water-related conflict hotspots before violence erupts, begin to understand the local context, prioritize opportunities for water interventions, and undertake capacity development and dialogue activities.
The Long Term Global Early Warning Tool. Our Global Early Warning Tool provides the initial step in a multi-step process, employing machine-learning to predict conflict over the coming 12 months in Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. It does this on the basis of 15-20 global indicators that serve as model inputs. These indicators were selected as most significant in predicting conflict from among over 200 indicators tested. We define conflict as one that produces 10 or more deaths in any given second subnational administrative unit over a 12-month period. Generally speaking, our predictions of ongoing conflict are a lot more accurate than our predictions of emerging conflict. We continue to work on improving our model and extending its geographic coverage. So far it has captured 86% of future conflicts, successfully forecasting more than 9 in 10 “ongoing conflicts” and 6 in 10 “emerging conflicts”.[1]
The Short Term Global Early Warning Tool. We also predict the intensity and direction of conflict events over the next two months. This sheds extra detail on areas experiencing conflict. Our predictions have been on average within 2 events of the actual events. Though the quarterly update focuses mainly on the 12-month forecast, information from the short-term forecast is also included.
Quarterly analyses. We are publishing quarterly analyses to accompany our updated maps. These quarterly analyses flag some of the hotspot areas we are tracking and describe what journalists and other actors are seeing on the ground. While we are primarily concerned with water- and climate-related conflict, the tool is designed to forecast any type of violent conflict (and can therefore be used by a variety of users interested in conflict).
Our multistep process. Early warning is very important, especially given limits to the number of problems that national and international actors can track and address at one time. Our Global Early Warning Tool ensures that emerging conflicts can get the attention they need, early enough that potential risks can still be mitigated. Our regional- and local-level tools then support the next steps in the process and can be used to verify (or disprove) global model predictions, better understand regional and local conflict dynamics, and begin to identify opportunities for mitigating risk. WPS partners offer training and capacity development to global-, national-, and local-level actors to help them better manage risks. We can also help build constructive dialogues among parties to disputes (and other key stakeholders) that can engender water-related cooperation, peacebuilding, and design of conflict-sensitive interventions.
Do you want to learn more about how the Global Early Warning Tool works or how you can use it yourself? The WPS partnership has recently launched the first two modules of a free online e-learning module. Module 2 is dedicated to the function, generation and application of the Global Tool, including a practical walk-through to explore the tools’ capabilities yourself. You can find the course here: Module 2: The Global Early Warning Tool.