WPS GLOBAL EARLY WARNING TOOL August 2025 QUARTERLY ANALYSIS
QUARTERLY OVERVIEW
PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT
These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first level subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges. See complete story in the following section.
Africa
- Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania: Pollution in Lake Victoria threatens livelihoods.
Asia
- India and Pakistan: Heightened rhetoric over water sharing.
Middle East
- Afghanistan: Warnings that Kabul is running out of water.
- Iran: Tehran is reportedly weeks away from Day Zero.
- Iraq: Lowest water reserves are observed in 80 years.
OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST
These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest. See complete story below.
Africa:
- Morocco: Shrinking reservoirs.
Asia
- Tibet: Concerns over a new hydroelectric dam.
Europe
- Spain: Criminal investigations on flood response.
Americas
- US: The Colorado Basin's groundwater is running low.
- US-Mexico: Water disputes grow over the Rio Grande's water.
Global
- Global: The thirsty atmosphere is exacerbating drought.
- Global: New temperature records are likely.
Quarterly Update
PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT
These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first level subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges.
Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania: Pollution threatening lives and livelihoods
The Lake Victoria Basin Commission released a new study that found that pollution from cities surrounding the lake is threatening the health of the lake, endangering aquatic life, and threatening the livelihoods of the 40 million people in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania that rely on the lake. The last joint regional water quality assessment of the lake was conducted in 2002, and a new one is overdue, with pollution increasing, and new chemical pollution threatening the lake.
The WPS long term model forecasts ongoing conflict in Kenya around the lake in Homa Bay, Kisumu, Siaya, and Busia, and the short term model predicts an increasing number of conflict events in Mara, Tanzania, and Mukono, Uganda.
Afghanistan: Warnings of Kabul Running out of water
A Mercy Corps report found that “Without urgent, coordinated investment, Kabul risks becoming the first modern capital to run dry.” Unsustainable groundwater extraction, water contamination, data gaps and poor coordination are threatening water access in the capital.
The WPS long term model forecasts conflict in most of Afghanistan, and the short term model predicts an increasing number of conflict events in Hirat, Ghor, Faryab, Wardak, Kabul, and Takhar.
India-Pakistan: Heightened rhetoric over water sharing
Following India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty in April, NPR reported that negotiations have not resumed between the two countries. Furthermore, Indian Prime Minister Modi escalated rhetoric, stating “Pakistan will not get water from rivers over which India has rights” reported Reuters.
The WPS long term model forecasts conflict in most of Pakistan and India, and the short term model predicts a decreasing number of conflict events in Kashmir.
IRAN: Weeks Away from Day Zero
Poor water management and increasing demand, with decreasing supply, is putting Tehran at risk of running out of water within weeks, reports CNN. In response, officials have reduced water pressure by almost half, and many are relying on tankers and storage tanks. The Iranian government declared a one-day public holiday in Tehran to reduce electricity and water use and is contemplating a weeklong holiday, hoping people will leave the city.
The WPS long term model forecasts emerging conflict in Kerman and ongoing conflict in Sistan and Baluchestan, Kermanshah, Kordestan, East Azarbaijan, and Gilan, and the short term model predicts an increasing number of conflict events in Sistan and Baluchestan, Bushehr, and Markazi.
IRAQ: Lowest water reserves in 80 years
Iraq recorded its lowest water reserves in 80 years, prompting the government to launch a new water initiative to protect the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Water initiatives include increasing desalination capacity and smart water management such as smart meters and leak detection. However, challenges remain with upstream neighbour Turkey restricting flow from the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates.
The WPS long term model forecasts conflict in most of Iraq, and the short term model predicts a moderate increase in the number of conflict events in Maysan governorate where Amarah is located.
Reservoir surface area anomalies in Iraq show lower than normal reservoir levels. April to May 2025. Source: Global Water Watch.
OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST
These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest.
MOROCCO: Shrinking reservoirs
The second largest reservoir in Morocco, the Al Massira Dam “contains just 3% of the average amount of water that was there nine years ago” BBC reports. Six years of drought has decreased the available water to the country and farmers – who use 90% of the water. Farmers have had to sell livestock and take on agricultural loans. The country is investing in seawater desalinization plants, but there are drawbacks in terms of high energy use, and environmental damage from saline water. Though there have been some rains, climate change will continue to increase evaporation and cause more frequent and severe droughts that Morocco will need to plan for.
TibeT: concerns over hydroelectric dam
China’s plan to build the world’s largest hydroelectric dam in Tibet is causing concern from India that China could release massive quantities of water – a “water bomb” in future conflicts on the Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra River – damaging downstream infrastructure and communities. Diplomacy around water in South Asia is particularly low right now with the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, and the upcoming expiration of the Ganges Water Treaty.
SpAIN: Criminal Investigations on flood response
The Washington Post reported that a judge in Spain placed two politicians responsible for emergency response under investigation and is deciding whether to indict them on charges of reckless homicide and reckless injury. At least 228 people died from severe flooding in Valencia, Spain in October 2024. Despite Spain’s meteorological agency's severe warning early in the morning of 29 October, the regional government sent their first emergency alert about 12 hours later, after much of Valencia was underwater.
US: COLORADo Groundwater Running Low
The Colorado River’s low water has been a tough topic in the western US, but a new study found that the groundwater situation is even worse. The basin lost 27.8 million acre-feet of groundwater between 2002 and 2024, about the storage capacity of Lake Mead, the US's largest reservoir. Most of the loss was in the lower part of the basin, mainly in Arizona. Dr. Famiglietti, the author of the study concluded “If left unmanaged for another decade, groundwater levels will continue to drop, putting Arizona’s water security and food production at far greater risk than is being acknowledged."
US-Mexico: Water Dispute over the Rio Grande
The water of the Rio Grande on the border of Mexico and the United States is shared based on an agreement from 1944 that states that Mexico is responsible for sharing 430 million cubic meters of water each year. The BBC reported that Mexico has not been delivering on this agreement – in part due to a drought in Chihuahua. Trump, pressured by Republican lawmakers in Texas, is now threatening to withhold water from the Colorado, or enact tariffs or sanctions on Mexico for failing to deliver the water. Though improving efficiency on irrigation methods in Mexico could conserve some water use, droughts and a changing climate may challenge compliance in this and many other water-sharing agreements.
Global: Thirsty atmosphere exacerbating drought
Atmosphere thirst or atmospheric water demand is increasing – due to climate change – and is making droughts worse across the world even where rainfall amounts remain the same. Increasing atmosphere thirst, also known as atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) “is responsible for about 40% of the increase in drought severity over the last four decades (1981-2022)” and in addition to making droughts worse, expands the area of land affected by drought.
Global: New temperature records likely
The World Meteorological Organization and the U.K. Meteorological Office forecasted that there is an 80% chance the world will break another temperature record in the next five years. The world is getting closer to surpassing the Paris Agreement’s goal of 1.5 degree Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warming and reaching 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warming instead – according to more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations run by 10 global centers of scientists. Likely impacts of this warming are more deadly heatwaves, and more severe wildfires and storms.
ABOUT WPS AND ITS QUARTERLY ANALYSES
Water, Peace and Security (WPS) Partnership. The WPS Partnership offers a platform where actors from national governments of developing countries and the global development, diplomacy, defense, and disaster relief sectors can identify potential water-related conflict hotspots before violence erupts, begin to understand the local context, prioritize opportunities for water interventions, and undertake capacity development and dialogue activities.
The Long Term Global Early Warning Tool. Our Global Early Warning Tool provides the initial step in a multi-step process, employing machine-learning to predict conflict over the coming 12 months in Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. It does this on the basis of 15-20 global indicators that serve as model inputs. These indicators were selected as most significant in predicting conflict from among over 200 indicators tested. We define conflict as one that produces 10 or more deaths in any given second subnational administrative unit over a 12-month period. Generally speaking, our predictions of ongoing conflict are a lot more accurate than our predictions of emerging conflict. We continue to work on improving our model and extending its geographic coverage. So far it has captured 86% of future conflicts, successfully forecasting more than 9 in 10 “ongoing conflicts” and 6 in 10 “emerging conflicts”.
The Short Term Global Early Warning Tool. We also predict the intensity and direction of conflict events over the next two months. This sheds extra detail on areas experiencing conflict. Our predictions have been on average within 2 events of the actual events. Though the quarterly update focuses mainly on the 12-month forecast, information from the short-term forecast is also included.
Quarterly analyses. We are publishing quarterly analyses to accompany our updated maps. These quarterly analyses flag some of the hotspot areas we are tracking and describe what journalists and other actors are seeing on the ground. While we are primarily concerned with water- and climate-related conflict, the tool is designed to forecast any type of violent conflict (and can therefore be used by a variety of users interested in conflict).
Our multistep process. Early warning is very important, especially given limits to the number of problems that national and international actors can track and address at one time. Our Global Early Warning Tool ensures that emerging conflicts can get the attention they need, early enough that potential risks can still be mitigated. Our regional- and local-level tools then support the next steps in the process and can be used to verify (or disprove) global model predictions, better understand regional and local conflict dynamics, and begin to identify opportunities for mitigating risk. WPS partners offer training and capacity development to global-, national-, and local-level actors to help them better manage risks. We can also help build constructive dialogues among parties to disputes (and other key stakeholders) that can engender water-related cooperation, peacebuilding, and design of conflict-sensitive interventions.
Do you want to learn more about how the Global Early Warning Tool works or how you can use it yourself? The WPS partnership has recently launched the first two modules of a free online e-learning module. Module 2 is dedicated to the function, generation and application of the Global Tool, including a practical walk-through to explore the tools’ capabilities yourself. You can find the course here: Module 2: The Global Early Warning Tool.