WPS GLOBAL EARLY WARNING TOOL AUGUST 2023 QUARTERLY ANALYSIS 

CONFLICT OVERVIEW  

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT 

These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a given first subnational administrative unit (state/province) that have linkages to water challenges.  See details in the next section.  

Africa 

• East Africa: While this year’s March-May rainy season brought relief to many areas, the impact of the multi-season drought remains, and some of the same places have been impacted by flooding.
• Somalia: In May, during its longest drought on record, Somalia suffered some of its worst flash and riverine flooding in decades.
• Sudan: The dire water and sanitation situation because of the conflict creates fears of a cholera outbreak. 

Middle East 

• Iraq: Driven by a host of factors, rural communities are witnessing a demise of their water resources, which are forcing them off their lands.
• Iran: Extreme heat and water shortages are forcing people to line up in the streets with jerrycans after taps run empty in parts of Tehran.
• Iran and Afghanistan: Iranian and Afghan border guards exchanged gunfire, with several people reportedly killed and wounded. The incident comes amidst an escalation of tensions over Iran’s water rights from the Helmand River.
• Afghanistan and Central Asia: Afghanistan has begun digging the Qosh Tepa Irrigation Canal, which will – if completed – divert a considerable amount of water away from Central Asia. 

Asia 

• Pakistan: An August 2023 report by Islamic Relief tallies the tremendous losses and details other impacts of the record-breaking flooding of 2022. 
• India: A tributary of the Ganges, which flows through New Delhi, saw record flooding in mid-July.

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST 

These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest. See details in the next section.  

Asia 

• China: In mid-July, China’s Xinjiang Province was hit by record 52.2-degree Celsius heat. 
• Thailand: As of July, rainfall in 2023 was 28% below the same period last year and was projected to decrease even further over the next two years with the onset of El Niño weather patterns.

Europe 

• Southern Europe and North Africa: In July, Southern Europe and North Africa saw extreme heat conditions which created conditions ripe for the spread of wildfires.
• Ukraine: In early June, the Kakhovka Dam was destroyed, unleashing a wave of flooding that inundated downstream towns, industrial sites, and farmland. The destruction of the dam killed people and livestock, destroyed livelihoods, poisoned freshwater supplies, and imperiled the region’s ecology. 

South America 

• Argentina: The IMF projects that Argentina’s economy will contract by 2.5%, largely due to crippling drought and its impact on the agricultural sector. 
• Uruguay. The worst drought in 44 years, coupled with water resources mismanagement, has severely limited access to clean water in Montevideo, home to 60% of the country’s population.  

North America 

• Mexico: In mid-July, over 40% of Mexico is in moderate to extreme drought, leading to crop losses, water shortages and higher food prices. 
• United States: In late July, ocean temperatures off the coast of Florida reached 101.1 degrees Fahrenheit, which could be a global record. 

Global 

• Global Temperatures: In early July, the planet’s average daily temperature soared to levels unseen in modern record-keeping. 

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT 

Africa 

SOMALIA: FLOODING 

In May, in the midst of its longest drought on record, Somalia suffered some of its worst flash and riverine flooding in decades. "Floods have washed away livestock, inundated farmland and displaced an estimated 219,000 people,"  according to the WFP. 

EAST AFRICA: UNPRECEDENTED FOOD INSECURITY 

While this year’s March-May rainy season brought relief to many areas of East Africa, the impact of the multi-season drought remains, and in some cases these same places were impacted by flooding. Experts warn that one good rainy season is not enough to counter the cumulative impact of the long drought. Indeed, the World Food Programme reported in late June that seven countries in the East Africa region were experiencing unprecedented levels of food insecurity. “WFP said that nearly 60 million people are not getting enough food to remain active and healthy, forcing families to sell their livestock and engage in negative coping strategies such as prostitution to survive.” The food insecurity derives from many drivers in addition to drought and flooding, such as stubbornly high food prices and Russia’s halting of the Black Sea grain deal. The WPS long-term forecast predicts ongoing and emerging conflict in parts of East Africa. 

The impact of the multi-season drought remains in East Africa despite the heavy rains. Source: SPI from Deltares.

SUDAN: SPREADING INSTABILITY IN THE REGION 

Four months of war in Sudan has caused massive loss of live and damage. Four million people have been displaced, and there are also fears of a cholera outbreak due to water shortages and lack of sanitation services and water treatment.

MIDDLE EAST 

IRAQ: WATER CRISIS 

A New York Times exposé in late July chronicles the water crisis unfolding throughout Iraq. Driven by a host of factors, rural communities are witnessing a demise of their water resources, which are forcing them off their lands. “Now, so little water remains in some villages near the Euphrates River that families are dismantling their homes, brick by brick, piling them into pickup trucks — window frames, doors and all — and driving away.” The WPS long-term forecast predicts ongoing and emerging conflict in Iraq. 

The reservoir behind the Mosul dam in Iraq has seen very low surface area over the past year. Source: Global Water Watch.

IRAN: WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES AND EXTREME HEAT 

Extreme heat and water shortages are forcing people to line up in the streets with jerrycans after taps run empty in parts of Tehran. In mid July, the heat index reached 152 degrees Fahrenheit (67 degrees Celsius) at Iran’s Persian Gulf International Airport. Across Iran, “people are posting videos to social media complaining of days on end in the heat without running water, their faucets emitting nothing but murky drops.” Unprecedented drought and decades of water resources mismanagement are making conditions “untenable” throughout Iran, but the government refuses to take responsibility. The WPS long-term forecast predicts ongoing and emerging conflict in the parts of Iran.

IRAN AND AFGHANISTAN EXCHANGE HEAVY GUNFIRE

In late May, Iranian and Afghan border guards exchanged gunfire, with several people reportedly killed and wounded. The incident comes amidst an escalation of tensions over Iran’s water rights from the Helmand River. Conditions are growing increasingly challenging for local inhabitants, as repeated droughts and water resources mismanagement have parched the region. 

AFGHANISTAN: CONCERN IN CENTRAL ASIA OVER CANAL 

Afghanistan has begun digging the Qosh Tepa Irrigation Canal, which will – if completed – divert a considerable amount of water away from Central Asia. “With a length of 285 kilometers and a width of some 100 meters, experts believe it could draw a significant portion of the Amu Darya’s flow while irrigating 550,000 hectares of land.” Two downstream and water-stressed countries – Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – are facing a potentially large impact, with a Turkmenistan-based hydrologist calling the project “not a problem, but a disaster.” The WPS long-term forecast predicts ongoing and emerging conflict in parts of Afghanistan.

ASIA  

PAKISTAN: IMPACTS OF 2022 FLOODING ASIA 

An August 2023 report by Islamic Relief tallies the tremendous losses and details other impacts of the record-breaking flooding of 2022. “The floods killed over 1,700 people, displaced a further 7.9 million from their homes and caused $30 billion (£23 billion) worth of damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and the economy. Over 1.7 million hectares (4.4 million acres) of crops were wiped out, more than 2 million homes damaged or destroyed, and over 800,000 livestock perished.” Researchers who interviewed people in the affected areas found that “40% of the children they surveyed had stunted growth and 25% were underweight as families struggle to access food and healthcare. About 80% of mothers reported sickness among children, with outbreaks of diarrhoea, malaria and dengue fever increasing.” The WPS long-term forecast predicts ongoing and emerging conflict in parts of Pakistan. 

INDIA: RECORD FLOODING 

A tributary of the Ganges, which flows through New Delhi, saw record flooding in mid-July. The flooding left death and destruction in its wake. “The Yamuna, which flows about 855 miles (1,376 kilometers) south from the Himalayas through several states, rose to 208.57 meters (about 684 feet) – the highest mark ever, officials said.” The WPS long-term forecast predicts ongoing and emerging conflict in parts of India.

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST  

ASIA 

CHINA: EXTREME HEAT AND FLOODS 

Since April, several Asian countries have contended with record-breaking heat. In mid-July, China’s Xinjiang Province was hit by record 52.2-degree Celsius heat. Extreme heat and flooding this season is threatening China’s wheat output, livestock, and aquaculture. In late July and early August, Beijing recorded its heaviest rainfall in 140 years, as the remnants of Typhoon Doksuri deluged the region. 

THAILAND: DROUGHT 

As of July, rainfall in 2023 was 28% below the same period last year and was projected to decrease even further over the next two years with the onset of El Niño weather patterns. “The dire outlook has prompted Thai authorities to ask farmers to restrict rice planting to a single crop to conserve water.”

EUROPE 

NORTH AFRICA AND SOUTHERN EUROPE: HEAT AND WILDFIRES 

In July, North Africa and Southern Europe saw extreme heat conditions which created conditions ripe for the spread of wildfires. Dozens of people died from the fires, which consumed thousands of acres of land in places like Algeria, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Other countries in the region, meanwhile, experienced heavy storms and flooding.

UKRAINE: DESTRUCTION OF DAM 

In early June, the Kakhovka Dam was destroyed, unleashing a wave of flooding that inundated downstream towns, industrial sites, and farmland. The destruction of the dam killed people and livestock, destroyed livelihoods, poisoned freshwater supplies, and imperiled the region’s ecology. The reservoir supplied drinking and irrigation water to the region and protected the region against flooding. Both Ukrainian- and Russian-controlled areas were affected, including Crimea. 

SOUTH AMERICA 

ARGENTINA: DROUGHT 

The International Monetary Fund projects that Argentina’s economy will contract by 2.5%, largely due to crippling drought and its impact on the agricultural sector. 

URUGUAY: DAY ZERO ARRIVES IN THE CAPITAL 

The worst drought in 44 years, coupled with water resources mismanagement, has severely limited access to clean water in Montevideo, home to 60% of the country’s population. Near-empty reservoirs are delivering water that may be too salty to drink and which may contain dangerous concentrations of toxic chemicals. 

NORTH AMERICA 

MEXICO: EXTREME DROUGHT LEADS TO DESPERATE MEASURES 

In mid-July, over 40% of Mexico is in moderate to extreme drought, leading to crop losses, water shortages and higher food prices. As a result, “the government is trying to bring desperately needed rain by turning to a controversial technology: cloud seeding.” 

UNITED STATES: SOARING TEMPERATURES AND DROUGHT 

In late July, ocean temperatures off the coast of Florida reached 101.1 degrees Fahrenheit, which could be a global record. Also in July, the southwestern city of Phoenix endured the hottest month for any US city ever. “The 31 consecutive days at 110 degrees or above broke the previous record by 18 days.” Meanwhile, in the Midwest, corn and soybean conditions were at their worst since 1988 due to stubborn drought. 

GLOBAL 

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES 

In early July, the planet’s average daily temperature soared to levels unseen in modern record-keeping. Temperature records were shattered across the Northern Hemisphere, including in Asia, Europe, and the United States. Records were also shattered in the Southern Hemisphere, where temperatures topped 100 degrees Fahrenheit in Chile in August, which is midwinter there. Also in the Southern Hemisphere, the growth of ice in winter has been stunted, setting a record low “by a wide margin”. 

ABOUT WPS AND ITS QUARTERLY ANALYSES 

Water, Peace and Security (WPS) Partnership. The WPS Partnership offers a platform where actors from national governments of developing countries and the global development, diplomacy, defense, and disaster relief sectors can identify potential water-related conflict hotspots before violence erupts, begin to understand the local context, prioritize opportunities for water interventions, and undertake capacity development and dialogue activities. 

The Long Term Global Early Warning Tool. Our Global Early Warning Tool provides the initial step in a multi-step process, employing machine-learning to predict conflict over the coming 12 months in Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia.  It does this on the basis of 15-20 global indicators that serve as model inputs. These indicators were selected as most significant in predicting conflict from among over 200 indicators tested. We define conflict as one that produces 10 or more deaths in any given second subnational administrative unit over a 12-month period. Generally speaking, our predictions of ongoing conflict are a lot more accurate than our predictions of emerging conflict. We continue to work on improving our model and extending its geographic coverage. So far it has captured 86% of future conflicts, successfully forecasting more than 9 in 10 “ongoing conflicts” and 6 in 10 “emerging conflicts”.[1] 

The Short Term Global Early Warning Tool. We also predict the intensity and direction of conflict events over the next two months.  This sheds extra detail on areas experiencing conflict.  Our predictions have been on average within 2 events of the actual events.  Though the quarterly update focuses mainly on the 12-month forecast, information from the short-term forecast is also included.  

Quarterly analyses. We are publishing quarterly analyses to accompany our updated maps. These quarterly analyses flag some of the hotspot areas we are tracking and describe what journalists and other actors are seeing on the ground. While we are primarily concerned with water- and climate-related conflict, the tool is designed to forecast any type of violent conflict (and can therefore be used by a variety of users interested in conflict). 

Our multistep process. Early warning is very important, especially given limits to the number of problems that national and international actors can track and address at one time. Our Global Early Warning Tool ensures that emerging conflicts can get the attention they need, early enough that potential risks can still be mitigated. Our regional- and local-level tools then support the next steps in the process and can be used to verify (or disprove) global model predictions, better understand regional and local conflict dynamics, and begin to identify opportunities for mitigating risk. WPS partners offer training and capacity development to global-, national-, and local-level actors to help them better manage risks. We can also help build constructive dialogues among parties to disputes (and other key stakeholders) that can engender water-related cooperation, peacebuilding, and design of conflict-sensitive interventions. 

Do you want to learn more about how the Global Early Warning Tool works or how you can use it yourself? The WPS partnership has recently launched the first two modules of a free online e-learning module. Module 2 is dedicated to the function, generation and application of the Global Tool, including a practical walk-through to explore the tools’ capabilities yourself. You can find the course here: Module 2: The Global Early Warning Tool. 

[1] The trade-off for this high recall is low precision for emerging conflicts. Around 80% of all emerging conflict forecasts represent false positives, that is, instances where conflict was forecast but did not actually occur. Ongoing conflicts are much easier to accurately predict and have both high recall and high precision (<1% were false positives). We continue to work on improving the early warning model and expect that future versions will be able to better predict conflict.