WPS GLOBAL EARLY WARNING TOOL August 2022 QUARTERLY ANALYSIS

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CONFLICT OVERVIEW 

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT

These are selected areas where the model predicts at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a given second subnational administrative unit. 

• Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia: Drought continued into the fourth consecutive growing season and compounded by rising food prices, led to large-scale food insecurity, which is predicted to continue into a fifth straight season next quarter.  
• South Sudan is reeling from three consecutive years of flooding, but many remain without aid due to funding cuts as the world’s attention shifts to Ukraine. 
• South Africa’s Nelson Mandela Bay faces Day Zero as multi-year drought threatens remaining water supplies. 
• Iraq continues to suffer from drought and low flows in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Little or no help is forthcoming from upstream countries, while provinces defy national government efforts to manage the problem internally. 
• Iran tensions continue over water sharing on the Helmand River with Afghanistan.  
• Afghanistan continues to suffer from drought, inefficient water management and economic turmoil as millions face acute water and food insecurity and starvation.
• Pakistan and India suffer under an unprecedented heatwave, leading to ruined crops and wheat export controls in India. 

 

PLACES TO MONITOR WITH WATER CHALLENGES

These are a few of the many areas where the model predicts 0 to less than 10 deaths in the next 12 months in a given second subnational administrative unit, but where we are nonetheless following water-related challenges and their implications. 

• Morocco: Drought continues to impact water availability for both agricultural and urban users, with wheat output less than half the five-year average and major dams filling at rates of less than 30%. 

 

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST

These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope, but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest.

• Europe: Drought, wildfires, and record heat have punished most of Western and Central Europe this summer. 
• China has also suffered through several bouts of extreme heat, as well as flooding in some areas. 
• Australia once again this year suffers through catastrophic flooding along its eastern coast. 
• Chile in response to a 12-year megadrought and 2019 protests, will vote on a new constitution that offers much more protection of water for life and nature. 
• Mexico is reeling under widespread drought. The manufacturing capital of Monterrey is especially hard hit. 
• The United States continues to experience “megadrought” conditions in the southwest. The federal government is under great pressure to force states in the Colorado River Basin to further cut water usage.
• Global Food Prices have fallen slightly from an all-time high but are still fueling violent protests throughout the developing world and causing hardship in relatively wealthy countries as well.

STORIES WE ARE TRACKING

KENYA, SOMALIA, AND ETHIOPIA: DROUGHT NOW THREATENS FIFTH CONSECUTIVE GROWING SEASON 

Drought has continued in the Horn of Africa through a fourth consecutive growing season and is predicted to continue into a fifth straight season next quarter (October – December 2022). At least 18.6 million people throughout Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are living with acute food insecurity and growing malnutrition. A host of other factors are making things worse, including the Russia-Ukraine war – a large percentage of the region’s grain imports come from Russia and Ukraine, and food prices in the Horn of Africa are consequently spiking. About half the population of Somalia is facing acute food insecurity and 250,000 are at risk of imminent starvation. 

The WPS Global Early Warning Tool predicts emerging or ongoing conflict throughout much of the drought-impacted region over the next 12 months. Extreme drought and acute food insecurity may be contributing to these predictions. 

SOUTH SUDAN: THREE YEARS OF FLOODING 

We have been reporting that South Sudan has been struggling with the worst flooding it’s seen in  60 years, with flood waters failing to recede in many parts of the country. South Sudan is now facing its highest food insecurity levels since independence, with 7.7 million people classified in “Crisis” or worse, and 87,000 facing possible famine. As the situation on the ground grows worse, humanitarian funding to South Sudan is being cut due to donor fatigue and a shift in donor focus to Ukraine. According to the World Food Programme, “almost one-third of the acutely food insecure South Sudanese [it was planning] to support this year will be left without humanitarian food assistance due to critical funding shortages, heightening the risk of starvation for 1.7 million people.” 

The WPS Global Early Warning Tool predicts emerging or ongoing conflict throughout most of South Sudan over the next 12 months. 

SOUTH AFRICA: DROUGHT THREATENS ANOTHER DAY ZERO 

In our last quarterly update, we reported that flooding from record-breaking rainfall in the eastern port city of Durban and surrounding KwaZulu-Natal Province killed 450 people and left thousands homeless as waters swept away houses, cars, and infrastructure.  

Now, further down the coast in Nelson Mandela Bay, people are grappling with the problem of too little water, as prolonged drought pushes the municipality towards Day Zero, when taps to city residents are shut off. “The wider Eastern Cape region of South Africa suffered a severe multi-year drought between 2015 and 2020, which devastated the local economy, particularly its agricultural sector. It had just a brief reprieve before slipping back into drought in late 2021.” 

In fact, some city residents are already waiting in line for water with jerry cans. Meanwhile, the region is trying to keep the worst effects of the drought at bay by moving water from less affected areas to more affected ones, drilling bore holes, and other means. President Ramaphosa, while visiting the area in mid-July, said that “although government is doing all it can to prevent Day Zero in the metro [region], communities living in the area must also help by using water sparingly and wisely.” 

The WPS Global Early Warning Tool predicts ongoing and emerging conflict in the area around Nelson Mandela Bay over the next 12 months. 

IRAQ: CONTINUED LOW FLOWS IN EUPHRATES AND TIGRIS RIVERS 

Iraq has been experiencing continuous drought since 2020, leading to low flows in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. Water Resources Minister Mahdi Rasheed told the press in late May that river levels were down 60% compared to last year. The Ministry of Agriculture cut cropping in irrigated areas to 50% less than the previous year due to surface water shortages.  

In mid-July, Iraq asked Turkey to increase water flows down the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, a request which Turkey indicated it was considering. Both countries have been facing drought conditions. Flows from Turkey into Iraq have been steadily declining over the past couple of decades, as Turkey has built a large network of dams across both rivers. But Turkey argues that Iraq is partly to blame for its water woes, due to its antiquated and inefficient agricultural water management system. Likewise, Iran continues to reduce flows to Iraq, with some transboundary rivers having fallen completely dry. Iran’s struggles with its own water crisis have prevented any increased sharing to date. 

The Iraqi government must also contend with renegade provinces refusing to implement or enforce its water resource reduction directives. In June, for example, the governor of the Babylon Province ordered the opening of a water gate on the Euphrates to supply local farmers. “The move was a blatant act of defiance against the federal government that is responsible for the management of water resources throughout the country.” In July, the General Commission for Groundwater announced that some of its workers were attacked in Al Muthanna Province while local authorities stood by and did nothing to contain the situation. 

The WPS Global Early Warning Tool predicts emerging and ongoing conflict throughout much of Iraq over the next 12 months. 

IRAN: TRANSBOUNDARY ISSUES WITH AFGHANISTAN 

In late July, the Iranian and the Afghan ministers of foreign affairs discussed issues of shared waters in a phone call and later agreed – according to Iranian news, still to be confirmed by the Taliban – to an Iranian visit to Afghanistan to discuss details of water sharing. Iran very directly expressed its concerns over what it perceives as too little flows from Afghanistan and emphasized that failure to find a solution could negatively affect bilateral relations more generally. This is clearly an increase in tensions – and possibly also part of Iran’s strategy to coerce Afghanistan into compromising over water sharing while the country remains weak and the Taliban’s ability to govern water resources remains extremely limited. According to Iranian news outlets, these threats have been successful, and Afghanistan has committed to ensuring a sufficient water share to Iran.  At the same time, tensions on the border – over locally shared water as well as other issues – flared up again in late June and early August.  

In spite of some positive signs, the persistent domestic water crisis in Iran – which the government tries to blame on neighboring Afghanistan – as well as the lack of effective governance of water resources at all levels in Afghanistan indicate that tensions will persist into the future. 

The WPS Global Early Warning Tool predicts emerging conflict in the border areas between Iran and Iraq, and emerging and ongoing conflict in border regions with Afghanistan and Pakistan.  

AFGHANISTAN: DROUGHT AND ECONOMIC TURMOIL 

In our last quarterly update, we reported that Afghanistan has been enduring the “worst drought since records began.” Drought, flooding, and violent storms, together with the inability of the Taliban to manage water resources or water infrastructure in the country in an effective manner, and the economic implosion triggered by the Taliban takeover, are the reasons why Afghanistan tops the list of insufficient food consumption globally.  

“For nearly ten consecutive months over 90 percent of the population has faced insufficient food consumption.” Some indicators of food security in Afghanistan appear to be improving, while others are worsening. With the Taliban in control, Afghanistan is also seeing declining aid from abroad. 

The WPS Global Early Warning Tool predicts emerging and ongoing conflict throughout most of Afghanistan over the next 12 months. 

PAKISTAN AND INDIA: EXTREME HEAT, DECLINING WHEAT PRODUCTION AND EXPORT CONTROLS 

In our last quarterly update, we reported that Pakistan and India were suffering through unprecedented heatwaves. Wheat and other crops were wilting in the heat on both sides of the border. Cities and towns were seeing electric power outages for hours each day as utilities rationed power – meaning people were unable to run air conditioners or refrigerators. The European Space Agency reported that the hottest temperatures recorded in the region were south of Ahmedabad, with maximum land-surface temperatures of around 65C (149F).”   

These high temperatures continued through the end of June. “[For] a period of almost 100 days [between March and June], high temperatures in Delhi were above 100 degrees Fahrenheit on all but 15 of them, with many days breaking 110 degrees.” 

In mid-May, in the face of declining wheat production in India and soaring wheat prices, the Indian government imposed a ban on wheat exports, which continues to this day. This move, intended to bring relief to Indian consumers, worsens the situation for consumers in other countries who are paying more and more for food. 

The WPS Global Early Warning Tool predicts emerging and ongoing conflict throughout Pakistan and parts of India over the next 12 months. 

morocco: devastating drought continues

In our last quarterly update, we reported that Morocco was experiencing its worst drought in 40 years. Its reservoirs had received only 11% of average annual inflows.

Drought continues to impact water availability for both agricultural and urban users. “The prolonged drought [has] caused Morocco’s wheat production to dip more than 55% below the five-year average.” Meanwhile, Morocco’s dams are contending with below-average filling rates. “The national average filling rate of Morocco’s main dams was only 29.2% [as of] July 18, 2022, a drop of almost half, compared to the same day (45.2%) in 2021.” Government entities are putting in place measures to stem water demand; however, it’s not clear whether these measures go far enough to contain the crisis.

Despite this grim situation, the WPS Global Early Warning Tool is not predicting conflict in Morocco over the next 12 months, perhaps due to its relatively stable political situation.

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST 

These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest.  

EUROPE: DROUGHT AND EXTREME HEAT 

Italy declared a state of emergency in five northern regions in early July due to impacts from the worst drought in 70 years. Farm groups in the Po River basin predicted harvests would drop by more than 30%. 

In mid-July, extreme heat engulfed large parts of western Europe, “with wildfires raging in France and Spain, a worsening drought in Portugal, and the third hottest day on record in the UK.” Heat and wildfires pushed eastward across central and southeastern Europe in the days that followed. 

In the Netherlands, a country typically known for too much rather than too little water, July and August have seen a severe drought which has led the government to formally declare a water shortage. Groundwater levels have dropped, lakes and rivers dried up and flows from upstream countries via some of Europe’s mightiest rivers – such as the Rhine – have declined considerably.  The drought is affecting the agricultural sector, navigation along the country’s major rivers - which is adding stress to the energy sector, and dikes are drying out, threatening their stability.  

CHINA: FLOODS AND EXTREME HEAT 

China has been another Northern Hemisphere extreme weather hotspot this summer. In June, massive flooding inundated scores of cities, this time in southern China. “Water levels in more than a hundred rivers across the country have surged beyond flood warning levels… [and] disrupted the lives of almost half a million people in southern China.” This is the second summer in a row that China has suffered extreme flooding. China suffered two devastating flood events in Henan and Shanxi provinces in July and October of last year, which destroyed homes, devastated infrastructure, and caused hundreds of deaths.  

In July, China suffered through several bouts of extreme heat. “China’s most populous city, Shanghai, issued its highest alert for extreme heat for the third time this summer as sweltering temperatures repeatedly tested records.” 

In August, extreme heat in central and southwestern China dramatically reduced flows in the Yangtze River. “Some factories in hydropower-reliant provinces have had to temporarily suspend operations to ration electricity.” 

AUSTRALIA: CATASTROPHIC FLOODING 

Catastrophic flooding has devastated eastern Australia once again this year. In July, Sydney broke another monthly rainfall record. “Sydney’s main rain gauge at Observatory Hill, located next to the Harbour Bridge, collected a whopping 404.0 mm of rain during July. This is more than four times its long-term monthly average and the highest July total in records dating back to 1858, beating 336.1 mm from 1950.” Sydney is still recovering from the devastating floods in March, which caused $4.8 billion in damage, the country’s third most expensive disaster ever. 

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison noted back in March that “Australia is getting hard to live in because of these disasters.” Floods in eastern Australia are associated with La Niña weather conditions. Climate change is making such extreme weather events more common. 

CHILE: MEGADROUGHT 

Chile has been in severe and prolonged drought since 2010. The region hasn’t seen a drought of this magnitude in over 1,000 years. The drought has had devastating effects on rural livelihoods across Chile, decimating crops and livestock. Reservoir levels have fallen precipitously, and many rural communities now rely on tanker trucks for their water supply. The drought has also greatly reduced flows in two rivers which supply water to the capital city of Santiago and its nearly 6 million inhabitants. 

Chile’s water system is one of the most privatized in the world, allowing people to freely buy and sell water allocations. But this may soon change. A new constitution has been drafted as a result of mass protests in 2019. It declares that water is essential for life and nature and must be protected in all its states and phases. The draft will be put to a national vote on September 4th. 

MEXICO: DROUGHT AND WATER SCARCITY 

Mexico is suffering through intense drought that is leading to water scarcity and rationing across large swathes of the country. “An extreme drought has seen taps run dry across the country, with nearly two-thirds of all municipalities facing a water shortage that is forcing people in some places to line up for hours for government water deliveries.” Frustration is boiling over into violence among some of those waiting in long lines.  

Reservoirs in northern Mexico that supply water to 5 million people are low or dry. The manufacturing capital of Monterrey has been especially hard hit. Growth in population and industrial activity has sent water demand soaring in recent years while intensifying drought and heat has diminished water supplies. Government management of water resources is poor. But the water crisis isn’t hitting everyone equally. Large industrial users are able to continue drawing on available water while poorer segments of the population are left to scrounge for any water that remains. 

UNITED STATES: MEGADROUGHT CONTINUES 

Drought across the US West continues to push water systems into “unchartered territory”. Water levels in the nation’s two largest reservoirs – Lake Mead and Lake Powell – are falling so low that they may soon be unable to export water to parts of Arizona, California, and Nevada that depend on them.   

Meanwhile, in New Mexico, the Rio Grande has stopped flowing through Albuquerque for the first time in 40 years. "This is not a drought, this is aridification," according to Rhett Larson, a water law professor at Arizona State University. "This is not something we can wait out. This is not something we can survive. This is the new world we live in." 

Death Valley, California, normally one of the driest places on earth, is experiencing the opposite problem.  In early August a thousand-year rainfall event dropped 75% of annual precipitation in 3 hours, causing flash flooding, stranding visitors to the park, and burying roads in dirt and debris.

GLOBAL FOOD PRICE SPIKES 

In March 2022, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)  Food Price Index reached 159.3 points – a record since its inception in 1990. Since March, food prices have come down a bit, to 154.2 points in June. Nevertheless, high food prices continue to exact a heavy toll on vulnerable populations worldwide. Over the past few months, high food and fuel prices have triggered mass protests throughout the developing world, including in Sri Lanka, Chile, Pakistan, Sudan, Peru, Albania, Argentina, Ghana, and many other places.    Vulnerable populations in developed countries such as the United States have also been impacted. “Soaring inflation in the U.S. is raising the price of everything from food to gas to rent. And that's been making it hard for many people to buy the food they need.” Demand for food from food banks in the United States has increased significantly over the past few months.

 

ABOUT WPS AND ITS QUARTERLY ANALYSES

Water, Peace and Security (WPS) Partnership. The WPS Partnership offers a platform where actors from national governments of developing countries and the global development, diplomacy, defense, and disaster relief sectors can identify potential water-related conflict hotspots before violence erupts, begin to understand the local context, prioritize opportunities for water interventions, and undertake capacity development and dialogue activities.

The Global Early Warning Tool. Our Global Early Warning Tool provides the initial step in a multi-step process, employing machine-learning to predict conflict over the coming 12 months in Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia.  It does this on the basis of 15-20 global indicators that serve as model inputs. These indicators were selected as most significant in predicting conflict from among over 200 indicators tested. We define conflict as one that produces 10 or more deaths in any given second subnational administrative unit over a 12-month period. Generally speaking, our predictions of ongoing conflict are a lot more accurate than our predictions of emerging conflict. We continue to work on improving our model and extending its geographic coverage. So far it has captured 86% of future conflicts, successfully forecasting more than 9 in 10 “ongoing conflicts” and 6 in 10 “emerging conflicts”.[1]

Quarterly analyses. We are publishing quarterly analyses to accompany our updated maps. These quarterly analyses flag some of the hotspot areas we are tracking and describe what journalists and other actors are seeing on the ground. While we are primarily concerned with water- and climate-related conflict, the tool is designed to forecast any type of violent conflict (and can therefore be used by a variety of users interested in conflict).

Our multistep process. Early warning is very important, especially given limits to the number of problems that national and international actors can track and address at one time. Our Global Early Warning Tool ensures that emerging conflicts can get the attention they need, early enough that potential risks can still be mitigated. Our regional- and local-level tools then support the next steps in the process and can be used to verify (or disprove) global model predictions, better understand regional and local conflict dynamics, and begin to identify opportunities for mitigating risk. WPS partners offer training and capacity development to global-, national-, and local-level actors to help them better manage risks. We can also help build constructive dialogues among parties to disputes (and other key stakeholders) that can engender water-related cooperation, peacebuilding, and design of conflict-sensitive interventions.

Do you want to learn more about how the Global Early Warning Tool works or how you can use it yourself? The WPS partnership has recently launched the first two modules of a free online e-learning module. Module 2 is dedicated to the function, generation and application of the Global Tool, including a practical walk-through to explore the tools’ capabilities yourself. You can find the course here: Module 2: The Global Early Warning Tool.

[1] The trade-off for this high recall is low precision for emerging conflicts. Around 80% of all emerging conflict forecasts represent false positives, that is, instances where conflict was forecast but did not actually occur. Ongoing conflicts are much easier to accurately predict and have both high recall and high precision (<1% were false positives). We continue to work on improving the early warning model and expect that future versions will be able to better predict conflict.

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