WPS GLOBAL EARLY WARNING TOOL April 2025 QUARTERLY ANALYSIS   

 SPECIAL EDITION SECTION: WATER AND CLIMATE RISKS GROW AS RESOURCES TO ADDRESS THESE RISKS DECLINE  

Recent evidence of growing global water and climate risks 

• Prevalence of riots and protests demanding improved water management.  
• 2015-2024 were the ten warmest years on record.
• Extreme drought areas have increased three-fold since the 1980s. 
• One-quarter of world’s crops threatened by water risks.
• New research shows the increasingly important role of evaporation in driving drought conditions in the U.S. West.
• Natural disasters proved very costly in 2024.
• NASA scientists identify shifts in the global water cycle. 

Recent evidence of declining resources to address these risks 

• US terminates most USAID contracts.
• European foreign aid is also shrinking.
• UN unable to reach agreement on critical ways forward.
• US Department of Defense (DOD) ends funding for social science research.
• US famine early warning system disabled. 

QUARTERLY OVERVIEW 

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT   

These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first level subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges.  See complete story in the following section.   

Africa   

• Somalia: Drought and erratic rainfall contributing to worsening food security outlook in Somalia.
• Kenya and Ethiopia: Violent clashes in Lake Turkana border region result in 30 deaths and thousands of displacements. 

 Asia

• India and Pakistan: India suspends the Indus Water Treaty after a deadly attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Middle East 

• Iraq: City of Sayyid Dakhil declared a “disaster zone” due to severe water shortages. 
• Iran: Farmer protests over water in the city of Isfahan met with violent suppression by regime forces.  

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST   

These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest. See complete story below.   

Africa   

• Southern Africa: Concerns over aid for Southern African drought recovery. 

SPECIAL EDITION SECTION: WATER AND CLIMATE RISKS GROW AS RESOURCES TO ADDRESS THESE RISKS DECLINE  

RECENT EVIDENCE OF GROWING GLOBAL WATER AND CLIMATE RISKS 

Global protests demanding improved water resources management

The WPS team searched through the ACLED database and found over 500 protests events since the beginning of 2025.  These events ranged from demanding improved access to domestic water, water for irrigation, lower water prices, improved infrastructure, addressing pollution or water workers protesting for better conditions. The following map categorizes these events between January and mid-March 2025. Domestic access events were widespred with over 100 protest or riot events associated with communities demanding access to piped clean water.  India had the most events around domestic water access, followed by Mexico, Peru and South Africa. Almost half of the total events were related to more general infrastructure-related concerns.  The most prevalent was around the plan to dig six irrigation canals to irrigate lands in Punjab, Pakistan as there are concerns it will deplete Sindh's water resources.

2015-2024 were the ten warmest years on record

The past ten years – according to the World Meteorological Organizations – have been the ten warmest years on record. “Climate history is playing out before our eyes,” according to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “We’ve had not just one or two record-breaking years, but a full ten-year series. This has been accompanied by devastating and extreme weather, rising sea levels and melting ice, all powered by record-breaking greenhouse gas levels due to human activities.”     

Extreme drought areas have increased three-fold since the 1980s

As reported in our last QU, extreme drought areas have increased three-fold since the 1980s. In late October 2024, the BBC reported that “the area of land surface affected by extreme drought has trebled since the 1980s, [according to] a new report into the effects of climate change... Forty-eight per cent of the Earth’s land surface had at least one month of extreme drought last year, according to analysis by the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change - up from an average of 15% during the 1980s.” 

One-quarter of the world’s crops are threatened by water risks

In October 2024, new analysis by the World Resources Institute showed that “one-quarter of the world’s crops are grown in areas where the water supply is highly stressed, highly unreliable or both. Mounting risks like climate change and increased competition for water are threatening water supplies and, in turn, food security. Rice, wheat and corn — which provide more than half the world’s food calories  — are particularly vulnerable: 33% of these three staple crops are produced using water supplies that are highly stressed or highly variable. These growing water challenges come as food demands are increasing: Research shows the world will need to produce 56% more food calories in 2050 than it did in 2010 to feed a projected 10 billion people.” 

New research shows the increasingly important role of evaporation in driving drought conditions in the U.S. West

In our last QU we wrote about the increasingly important role of evaporation in driving drought conditions in the U.S. West. In November 2024, The Washington Post reported that new research published in the journal Science Advances “found that since 2000, rising temperatures — leading to greater evaporation — have done more to contribute to the severity and extent of droughts in the [U.S.] West than a lack of rainfall.” According to one of the study’s authors, hotter temperatures mean that more rainfall will evaporate before it reaches local reservoirs. 

Natural disasters proved very costly in 2024

A January 2025 publication by Munich Re reported that “worldwide, natural disasters caused losses of US$ 320bn in 2024 (2023, adjusted for inflation: US$ 268bn), of which around US$ 140bn (US$ 106bn) were insured. The overall losses and, even more so, the insured losses were considerably higher than the inflation-adjusted averages of the past ten and 30 years (total losses: US$ 236/181bn; insured losses: US$ 94/61bn). In terms of insured losses, it was the third most expensive year; in terms of total losses, 2024 ranks fifth on the cost scale since 1980. Weather catastrophes were responsible for 93% of overall losses and 97% of insured losses.” 

NASA scientists identify shifts in the global water cycle

A January 2025 news release announced that “in a recently published paper, NASA scientists use nearly 20 years of observations to show that the global water cycle is shifting in unprecedented ways. The majority of those shifts are driven by activities such as agriculture and could have impacts on ecosystems and water management, especially in certain regions… The shifts have implications for people all over the world. Water management practices, such as designing infrastructure for floods or developing drought indicators for early warning systems, are often based on assumptions that the water cycle fluctuates only within a certain range, said Wanshu Nie, a research scientist at NASA Goddard and lead author of the paper. ‘This may no longer hold true for some regions,’ Nie said. ‘We hope that this research will serve as a guide map for improving how we assess water resources variability and plan for sustainable resource management, especially in areas where these changes are most significant’.” 

RECENT EVIDENCE OF DECLINING RESOURCES TO ADDRESS THESE RISKS

U.S. terminates most USAID contracts

In late February 2025, AP reported that the Trump Administration terminated 90% of USAID foreign aid contracts. “In the hours after the Trump administration announced it was cutting some $60 billion in funding, termination letters arrived at NGOs across the world. They advised that their programs providing life-saving assistance against hunger and disease and performing other humanitarian work were being ended.” A UN publication in January 2025 noted that “the US Government is the largest single donor of aid in the world, disbursing around $72 billion in assistance during 2023. It also reportedly provided more than 40 per cent of all humanitarian aid accounted for by the UN during 2024.” 

European foreign aid is also shrinking

The United States isn’t the only country paring back foreign aid. In February 2025, Forbes noted that “governments across Europe are also cutting back. The Netherlands has slashed 30% of its aid budget, redirecting funds to projects that ‘directly contribute to Dutch interests.’ Belgium cut aid by 25%, while France reduced its budget by 37%. Most recently, the UK made a dramatic move, slashing foreign aid by 40% while raising defense spending.” 

United Nations unable to reach agreement on critical ways forward

In December 2024, for example, the UN was unable to agree on measures to address the growing risk of drought. An article in Food Manufacturing noted that “despite two weeks of U.N.-sponsored talks in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh, the participating 197 nations failed to agree… on a plan to deal with global droughts, made longer and more severe by a warming climate. The biennial talks, known as COP 16 and organized by a UN body that deals with combating desertification and droughts, attempted to create strong global mandates to legally bind and require nations to fund early warning systems and build resilient infrastructure in poorer countries, particularly Africa, which is worst affected by the changes.”  

U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) ends funds for social science research

Not only is the United States ending much of its foreign aid program, but it is also making drastic cuts to federally funded research. Science reported in March 2025 that the Pentagon was “ending all of its funding for social science research, stopping 91 ongoing studies related to threats such as climate change, extremism, and disinformation.” 

U.S. famine early warning system disabled

A critical resource in global efforts to prevent famine has been lost. In March 2025, CNN reported that “a vital, US-run monitoring system focused on spotting food crises before they turn into famines has gone dark after the Trump administration slashed foreign aid. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors drought, crop production, food prices and other indicators in order to forecast food insecurity in more than 30 countries… Now, its work to prevent hunger in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia, Afghanistan and many other nations has been stopped amid the Trump administration’s effort to dismantle the US Agency for International Development (USAID).” 

Quartely Update

PLACES TO WATCH FOR VIOLENT CONFLICT    

These are selected areas where the model predicts the likelihood of at least 10 fatalities in the next 12 months in a first level subnational administrative unit that have linkages to water challenges.   

Somalia: drought and erratic rainfall 

Drought and erratic rainfall are contributing to a worsening food security outlook in Somalia. The UN reported in late February 2025 that “new food security assessments indicate that 4.4 million people – nearly a quarter of the population – could face ‘crisis’ levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or higher) between April and June 2025, marking a sharp increase from 3.4 million people currently experiencing acute hunger. ‘Worsening drought, erratic rainfall and ongoing conflict are eroding livelihoods, pushing families deeper into crisis,’ said Etienne Peterschmitt, head of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in Somalia.”

The WPS long term tool forecasts continued conflict in much of Somalia. The WPS short term tool forecasts an increase in conflict in the areas surrounding Mogadishu.

Kenya and ethiopia: VIOLENCE IN border region 

Violent clashes in the Lake Turkana border region have resulted in 30 deaths and thousands of displacements. According to The Reporter, “violent clashes between communities residing on either side of the Ethio-Kenya border resulted in the deaths of at least 30 people in late February, while 10,000 Ethiopians were forced to flee their homes to escape the fighting.” The violence began on February 20, when two Ethiopian fishermen were killed by Kenyan militia from Turkana County. Several days of additional violence followed, involving Ethiopian and Kenyan militias and local pastoralists. According to The Reporter, “the Lake, which both communities share, straddles the border between the two countries and reports of clashes over grazing land and cattle rustling are common.” WPS has been operating in this northern border region. Through our dialogue work we have been building trust and relationships between communities. With grievances running deep and limited government capacity in the region, flare up of violent conflicts remains common. 

The WPS long term tool forecasts continued conflict in the region. The WPS short term tool forecasts an increase in conflict on the Ethiopian side of the border but no change on the Kenyan side.

India and Pakistan: India suspends the Indus Water Treaty

After a deadly attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir, India announced it was suspending the The Indus Waters Treaty, NPR reported. The treaty was negotiated by the World Bank in 1960 and has determined how India and Pakistan use water from six rivers that flow through both countries. The New York Times reports that this could ‘wreak havoc on the [Pakistan’s] agriculture and economy.

The WPS short-term forecast predicts a moderated increase in conflict events in parts of Kashmir.

IRAQ: impacts of deepening drought 

Shafaq News reported in early April that the city of Sayyid Dakhil, in the Dhi Qar Governorate, was declared a “disaster zone” due to severe water shortages. “Once a major agricultural hub, Dhi Qar has been severely impacted by prolonged drought, climate change, and restricted upstream water flow. In Sayyid Dakhil, residents have long relied on wells and staged repeated protests, including in 2024, as the shortages worsened. The crisis has displaced families, strained farming livelihoods, and heightened local tensions.” In a separate story in early April, Shafaq News reported of large-scale livestock deaths in Iraq’s southern marshes due to a combination of severe water pollution and saltwater intrusion from the Persian Gulf. The latter is a result of declining flows in the Euphrates River. 

In Dhi-Qar, The WPS long term forecast predicts continued conflict and the short-term forecast predicts a slight increase in the number of conflict events.

IRAN: water protests and violent suppression 

NCRI reported in early April that farmer protests over water in the city of Isfahan were met with violent suppression by regime forces. “The protesters, frustrated by years of broken promises and government neglect, chanted slogans such as ‘Death to [Mohammad Reza] Aref,’ ‘We will reclaim our water, even if we die,’ and ‘Zayandeh Rud water is our undeniable right.’ The anger directed at Aref, Masoud Pezeshkian’s Vice President, reflects growing frustration with the entire clerical establishment’s failure to resolve the water crisis.”  

The WPS short term tool forecasts increasing conflict in parts of Iran (Khuzestan, Kerman, and Sistan and Baluchestan) but Isfahan forecasts were below the conflict thresholds.

OTHER REGIONS AND ISSUES OF INTEREST   

These are a few of the areas that are currently outside of the model's geographic scope or without a prediction for violent conflict above the threshold of 10 deaths over the next 12 months but have water-related challenges. We are also following certain issues of interest.   

SOUTHERN AFRICA: concerns over aid 

There are concerns over aid for Southern African drought recovery. In our last Quarterly Update, we reported that Southern Africa was facing its worst hunger crisis in decades following months of severe drought. In the wake of the Trump Administration’s massive cuts to foreign aid, however, the UN World Food Program (WFP) has announced that it will consolidate its eastern and southern Africa operations and run them both from Nairobi. DW noted in March 2025 that “the sudden [closure of WFP’s Southern Africa bureau] came despite an El Nino induced drought causing Lesotho, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Namibia to declare national disasters in 2024. The WFP was already short on funding, having raised just one fifth of the US$400 million needed for drought response in seven countries last year.” WFP, according to DW, received $4.5 billion of its $9.8 billion budget in 2024 from the United States.  

ABOUT WPS AND ITS QUARTERLY ANALYSES   

Water, Peace and Security (WPS) Partnership. The WPS Partnership offers a platform where actors from national governments of developing countries and the global development, diplomacy, defense, and disaster relief sectors can identify potential water-related conflict hotspots before violence erupts, begin to understand the local context, prioritize opportunities for water interventions, and undertake capacity development and dialogue activities.   

The Long Term Global Early Warning Tool. Our Global Early Warning Tool provides the initial step in a multi-step process, employing machine-learning to predict conflict over the coming 12 months in Africa, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia.  It does this on the basis of 15-20 global indicators that serve as model inputs. These indicators were selected as most significant in predicting conflict from among over 200 indicators tested. We define conflict as one that produces 10 or more deaths in any given second subnational administrative unit over a 12-month period. Generally speaking, our predictions of ongoing conflict are a lot more accurate than our predictions of emerging conflict. We continue to work on improving our model and extending its geographic coverage. So far it has captured 86% of future conflicts, successfully forecasting more than 9 in 10 “ongoing conflicts” and 6 in 10 “emerging conflicts”.[1]   

The Short Term Global Early Warning Tool. We also predict the intensity and direction of conflict events over the next two months.  This sheds extra detail on areas experiencing conflict.  Our predictions have been on average within 2 events of the actual events.  Though the quarterly update focuses mainly on the 12-month forecast, information from the short-term forecast is also included.    

Quarterly analyses. We are publishing quarterly analyses to accompany our updated maps. These quarterly analyses flag some of the hotspot areas we are tracking and describe what journalists and other actors are seeing on the ground. While we are primarily concerned with water- and climate-related conflict, the tool is designed to forecast any type of violent conflict (and can therefore be used by a variety of users interested in conflict).   

Our multistep process. Early warning is very important, especially given limits to the number of problems that national and international actors can track and address at one time. Our Global Early Warning Tool ensures that emerging conflicts can get the attention they need, early enough that potential risks can still be mitigated. Our regional- and local-level tools then support the next steps in the process and can be used to verify (or disprove) global model predictions, better understand regional and local conflict dynamics, and begin to identify opportunities for mitigating risk. WPS partners offer training and capacity development to global-, national-, and local-level actors to help them better manage risks. We can also help build constructive dialogues among parties to disputes (and other key stakeholders) that can engender water-related cooperation, peacebuilding, and design of conflict-sensitive interventions.   

Do you want to learn more about how the Global Early Warning Tool works or how you can use it yourself? The WPS partnership has recently launched the first two modules of a free online e-learning module. Module 2 is dedicated to the function, generation and application of the Global Tool, including a practical walk-through to explore the tools’ capabilities yourself. You can find the course here: Module 2: The Global Early Warning Tool.