Module 2: Global Early Warning Tool

This module introduces the Water, Peace, and Security Partnership’s Global Early Warning Tool, an online resource that helps identify hot spots of water-related conflict and forecasts where conflict is likely to emerge or to continue in the next 12 months. The module provides instructions on how to use the tool.

The Global Early Warning Tool’s function, generation, and application are discussed in following three videos. The first video introduces the Global Early Warning Tool and its ability to forecast existing and emerging conflict. The second video explains how the tool is generated through input of multiple variables and machine learning. The final video discusses how the tool can be applied to water-focused interventions and highlights its limitations. The instruction, readings, and activities are guided by the following learning objectives: 

• Explain how the Global Early Warning Tool fits within the WPS framework and what the next steps are to address water conflict
• Understand how the conflict forecast is generated and updated
• Discuss how water is analyzed within the Global Early Warning Tool and how this connection aligns with the understanding established in Lesson 1
• Engage in how to use the Global Early Warning Tool and be aware of its limitations
  
  

Video 2.A: Introduction to the Global Early Warning Tool

Video 2.B: Explanation of the Global Tool mechanics

Video 2.C: Application and Limitations of the Global Tool

Recommended Readings

• Leveraging Water Data in a Machine Learning–Based Model for Forecasting Violent Conflict (Technical Note) - World Resources Institute (2020)
• Revisiting the Contested Role of Natural Resources in Violent Conflict Risk through Machine Learning (Article) - Schellens, Marie K. & Belyazid, Salim, Sustainability (2020)

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