Sudan’s Jebel Aulia Dam faces rising risks amid war and climate extremes

Critical infrastructures like Sudan’s Jebel Aulia Dam are under severe threat due to war and climate change. In a recent study, including expert advice from WPS coordinator Yasir Mohamed, the alarm was raised.

 

Image of Sudan dam
Jebel Aulia Dam (Source: Israa Alfaki, February 2020)

The ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has turned this aging structure, upstream of Khartoum, into a military flashpoint, jeopardizing its operation and structural integrity, and putting millions of lives at risk. In November 2023, violent clashes forced dam operators to flee, leaving gates in a fixed position. With record water inflows from Lake Victoria and heavy rainfall, the dam risks overtopping, threatening catastrophic flooding downstream. Local communities and RSF forces have since adjusted the gates, but lack of maintenance and irregular management increases risks.

“Despite the 2024 flood passing safely, the risk of dam failure remains high in the absence of adequate operation and maintenance,” said coordinator of the WPS partnership and IHE Delft Associate Professor Yasir Mohamed — co-author of the research. “Incidences of dam failures are increasing during last few years in many places of the world, particularly in fragile and war zone areas, attributed to climate change, and lack of maintenance. This growing threat demands urgent attention from the international community.

Similar to Sudan’s Arbaat Dam collapse in 2024, caused by poor maintenance and extreme weather, the Jebel Aulia Dam faces heightened risk of failure. Located 40 km south of Khartoum, the dam is vital for irrigation, power generation, flood management and fishing, supporting thousands of livelihoods. Flooding could devastate farmlands, displace communities, and destroy fishing industries.

In the report, titled Escalation of Dam Failure Risk During Wartime: The Case of Jebel Aulia Dam - Sudan, the researchers call for immediate action. Strengthening flood preparedness, early warning systems, and evacuation plans can reduce risks, but without secure conditions for dam maintenance, these measures are limited. Protecting the Jebel Aulia Dam is essential to safeguarding lives and the region’s fragile ecosystem.

Link to blog: Caught in the Crossfire: How Conflict in Sudan threatens the Jebel Aulia Dam and the Surrounding Communities? - wdpprepository.org

Link to report: Escalation of Dam Failure Risk During Wartime: The Case of Jebel Aulia Dam_ Sudan - wdpprepository.org

The IHE Delft Water and Development Partnership Programme, financed by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, provided support to this research project. WPS blogs provide insights into recent developments relating to water, conflict, security and peace. These blogs reflect the opinion of the authors and not necessarily of the WPS partnership or its donors.

Contact

Yasir Mohamed
Associate Professor of Water Resources Management | IHE Delft
IraqEthiopiaManagement