A blog by Lenka Hrabalová

I take the same stroll every year in January. Beginning at the tiny oasis city of Azougi and continuing around a massive rock set on the slopes of the wadi, thickly etched with cow images reminiscent of times gone by in the Sahara. A five-kilometre walk through the sands of Wadi leads to Atar, northern Mauritania's capital. You see when the city is close, due to the garbage, as well as the empty houses emerging from the dust.

When I first hiked this trail in 2013, the community was bustling with activity. Now, no-one is in sight. As people left, the village has been swallowed by dunes. Thousands of other villages in the Middle East and Africa face a same fate: first the water disappears, then the people. No country in the Middle East and North Africa is safe from this fate.

Migration

A well-known Mauritanian author once told me that Sahrawis, an ethnic group native to the western Sahara — born into a vast and limitless land with infinite horizons — cannot live anywhere else. That was over seven years ago, but I still think about his words. How things have changed. Today, Mauritanians are desperately trying to escape. Migration has become a more pressing topic over the years.

Moussa Eliman Sall, a young activist of the Mauritanian (RIM) Youth Climate Movement, told me: "You've seen it yourself. People are leaving. The roads are lined with dead villages. Water is gone. In some areas, women walk thirty kilometres for water. Who would want to live there?"

This is not just happening in Mauritania, but in many other countries. People used to say "Where would we go?" or "This is the place of our ancestors." But now the situation has become unbearable.

Water scarcity and pollution

On a trip to the Mesopotamian marshes in southern Iraq in 2021, I arrived envisioning paradise, but found poverty and desperation. Once the cradle of human civilisation, its abundance of animals and resources allowed our forefathers to think about more than basic necessities, leading to cultural and religious progress.

The province Dhi Qar was suffering from water scarcity and pollution. This is partly caused by “intensive water usage by the oil and agricultural industry, the construction of dams, the impacts of conflict on water infrastructures, and climate change” (WPS: Water challenges and conflict dynamics in Southern Iraq). On the road south, I discovered kilometres of dried-out water channels, some of which were dug thousands of years ago, decorated with rusted boats, salt-covered farms and abandoned houses. This water crisis has a geopolitical component, since over 90% of Iraqi water comes from the transboundary Euphrates and Tigris rivers. The flow of these great rivers is significantly restricted by the upstream dams of Turkey and Iran.

Conflict over water

For years, there has been talk that the next conflict would be over water. Only after seeing Iraq did I fully understand this. Water is the most important resource, and water diplomacy between states is critical for the future of the entire MENA region and beyond. The potential for conflict is not only regional, but also local, as people cope with water stress by illegal water tapping, migrating or joining criminal groups that may increase the risk of (violent) conflict (WPS, 2022).

Conflicts result from frustration, as MENA states grow weak and are unable to provide for their people, they fight over resources. Organizations like the Water, Peace and Security can help remove tensions, which are divided along ethnic or religious lines and are sometimes heavily armed. WPS training programmes help stakeholders understand their mutual  needs.

Erosion and mismanagement

In an interview, Dominika Čermáková from the NGO All for Soil told me that under the harsh conditions of the Sahel, it takes 100 to 1000 years for a centimeter of fertile soil to develop. Erosion and mismanagement can remove up to 15 centimetres in a year. Čermáková teaches Ethiopians how to safeguard their land, but sometimes it's too late, she explains. "When we arrive, we realize that we can only postpone the village's doom. The land has died."

When the land is exhausted and wells and channels dry up, the people who once farmed, fished, or herded cattle have little choice. If there is still time, they could dig a deeper well, which can sustain hundreds to thousands of people. However, financial or hydrological obstacles can prevent this happening — depending on the availability of funds and the recharge rate of groundwater.

"When water scarcity causes people to lose their livelihoods and migrate, it destabilises the whole region. Through dialogue and capacity building in conflict sensitive water management, we can help communities retain their livelihoods in a sustainable and equitable way and avoid conflict." said Yasir Mohammed IHE Delft lead at Water,  Peace and Security.

Migration and radicalization

When this happens they are forced to migrate. Sall tells me, “Mauritanians take several routes.  Some take their families to the major cities, like the capital Nouakchott, where slums are sprouting up. The more difficult journeys are mostly made by men, travelling to the Sahara through Mali before attempting to reach Europe. It is a dangerous route. Many perish or are caught by militias and traffickers.

The latest route is to South America, where Africans can easily get visas and join the Latin Americans travelling to the US. The numbers of Africans registered on the US border have quadrupled in 2023 compared to the previous year to almost 60,000. Many more slipped in illegally.

The last option is radicalization. In fragile states in the MENA region, militias are always looking for fresh recruits. Men, who have to provide for their families, are offered jobs such as mechanics, merchants, smugglers or even fighters. Environmental journalist Peter Schwartzstein explained how after years of drought in Syria and Iraq, ISIS and other groups provided aid to people when the state failed them. Then, they were offered paid positions. As the situation became desperate, men joined the ranks of ISIS and other radical groups. The same is happening in Yemen, where the Houthis provide new recruits with a basket of food, and in North African countries where Boko Haram pays smugglers handsomely.

When I asked fighters in Afghanistan why they work for the Taliban, they gave the same simple response: "I used to work in low-paid jobs in Iran. Then my family told me that the Taliban were back in power and that it was safe to return. So I came back to a well-paid job, and am now at home with my loved ones.”

Global security

Water, food and shelter are basic human requirements. When deprived of these, people are forced to act. Climate change and increasing global water stress will put more pressure on access to basic requirements, which will lead to new security concerns, affecting us all.

But it doesn’t have to be this way. Investing in local solutions — clean water infrastructure, climate resilience, sustainable farming and stable livelihoods — offers the best chance to reduce the need for desperate journeys or dangerous allegiances. If we support communities before they are forced to choose between exile and extremism, we can foster stability and hope.

Taking action is in the interests of global security, as well as for the sake of compassion. In today’s globalized world, we are all interconnected. The ripple effects of crisis can — and often do — reach here.